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Wednesday, October 28, 2009

4x Trading Software At Its Best: 4x Trading Was Never So Easy - 4x Software You Must Have

The Forex MegaDroid has been developed by John Grace and Albert Perrie. Both are forex traders with 38 years 4x trading experience between them. As close friends, over time they firmed up their thoughts about developing their own 4x trading software robot.Sadly the Forex MegaDroid has a horrid sales page like all the others do - which initially was a big turn off for me. It's exactly the look and feel you'd expect from a used car salesman with sleazy tactics. It is so tacky that I expected to be reporting here that their 4x software product is a disgrace. But during my research of them, I was forced to reconsider my first impressions. The proven, ongoing live testing results confirm this.In all of the live-account testing I have seen, there is no question that it performs exceptionally well. They claim better than a 95% successful trade rate - which I doubted very much - but it's true. I have seen the proof many times.Visit Forex Robots Reviewed by clicking the link below to see links to live 4x trading accounts of this 4x software in action.This guy bought his MegaDroid, installed it easily, and opened live forex trading accounts with 3 different brokers. In each account he put $3,000. From each account ID, he gave his MegaDroid the data feed from each broker. The robot can then execute trades on his accounts.He set his limits of risk he was happy with per the training. And then he sat and watched. He is a novice trader. He has just started out. He did nothing more than install it, set it on the default risk levels. Then he just watched and let it do its thing.At the time of writing that review (May 14, 2009) - his 3 different broker accounts (using the one copy of MegaDroid) had made 37 trades.Of the 37 trades, 36 made a profit - only 1 trade lost money - $7.36. For the 24 days trading till just then (on fully automatic) - his net profit is $1,067.15.I am impressed by that. As of May 14, 2009 that's 97.3% profitable trades.Also it is important to note the $/trade profit versus the $/trade loss. The 36 profitable trades were for an average of $29.85 profit each trade. As said, the 1 losing trade was for $7.36.So, that's 36:1 profit to lose ratio on the number of trades. And a 4:1 ratio on the size of profits compared to losses.My view is that even if a trader was expert and smart enough to do what the MegaDroid has demonstrated here, no human could concentrate long enough and consistently enough to match the performance.Still not impressed? Then look at other live 4x trading account on the website Forex Robots Reviewed (link below).MegaDroid $10,000 opening balance January 1, 2009 LIVEAs of May 14, 2009 it has now got a balance of $78,138.70. 103 trades - 101 trades made a profit. Look at the profit graph - sorry you have to visit the web page to get the link to the live 4x trading account.Through the years of Forex trading John and Albert did realize that most Forex robot systems were designed and developed with only a single forex market condition in mind.While this maybe true, I don't really care - I just want it to make money reliably and safely. Every Forex trader does know that the forex market changes all the time. It is clear from real proof that the MegaDroid Forex Trading Robot has a system built into it that embraces this change.The vendors claim this system has been successfully created to perform at 95.82% accuracy. What I have witnessed from real traders doing real trading it performs better than that. The novice is seeing 97.3%, and the professional is seeing just slightly better than 98%.But don't rush off an buy Megadroid just yet. There are some important facts you need to know - so visit Forex Robots Reviewed to find out all about it.You'll see the link below. Click it now if you want to make some serious money.

Successful Forex Rading System

Forex trading system is the subsystem of the forex trading plan which governs when and at which price you open and close your trades. A trading system works on the signals given by technical analysis and/or fundamental analysis. The signals are taken to see if the trader should buy or sell a specific currency pair or must close the open position(s). Any currency trading system prevents information overload by filtering out the universe of technical and/or fundamental signals in such a way that only the most reliable (successful in the past) signals or signal combinations are acted upon.There are two kinds of trading systems - the discretionary and the mechanical. Discretionary trading systems expect the trader to use his or her own judgement to ascertain the importance of each of the technical or fundamental signals (whose number is potentially infinite) that he or she gets. Mechanical trading systems operate on a fixed number of technical or fundamental signals without the participation of the trader. Discretionary trading systems require the perpetual application of creativity (flexibility of approach) from the trader in the understanding of the changing market conditions. Mechanical trading systems require the creativity from the trader only in the forex system development phase.Discretionary forex trading systems are best employed by professional forex traders with a lot of experience (internalized practical market knowledge) against which they can determine the validity of any signal that they receive. These traders usually remember a large number of various signal patterns from the past (just like the master chessmen) that they can compare to the current market conditions, to make their analysis more objective. In essence, they use themselves (i.e. their brain) as their trading system - often very successfully - because human mind has the best pattern recognition power on the planet.Starting currency traders are advised to begin by following professionally created mechanical forex trading systems. Most of these systems are sold-out in the form of the forex signals that are usually developed by experienced traders who have found a way to systemize their knowledge of the markets into a working strategy. At the same time, the beginning traders can work on building their own knowledge base of the forex market through the quality forex books, educational courses, bank reports and newswires on this subject -so that they can too, with time, create mechanical trading systems from their own insights and intuitions (using the forex charting packages which allow to do this).Beginning without a proven mechanical forex trading system (that has positive mathematical expectation) drastically dilutes the chances of maintaining the capital. This is because any intuition or a hunch that the traders experience as a result of some newly gained knowledge of the forex market is likely to be overridden by one of the two emotional derivatives of their life-long programming towards the money - the greed and the fear. In other words, without exact adherence to an existing mechanical trading system the beginning trader will eventually succumb to his or her emotions. As a matter of fact, the only way the traders can acquire discipline in the early phases of their trading careers is by tight following the signals generated by a proven mechanical forex trading system.Note: Neural Network Packages (e.g. NeuroShell) emulate the process of human learning and can be used to accumualte the knowledge of the past technical and/or fundamental signal patterns (just like the mind of professional forex traders does) for the purpose of the future currency price forecasting.Quote: "A mechanical approach to the markets can be successful and this is backed up by the fact that approximately 80% of the $30 billion in the managed futures industry is traded by exact systematic methods", from the "The Ultimate Trading Guide" by John R. Hill, George Pruitt, and Lundy Hill.2.2. Components of a Forex Trading System.A regular forex trading system consists of two subsystems - the entry system and the exit system. These systems can operate on a different or the same set of inputs. The inputs can be technical or fundamental signals.A system consists of a number of rules which interpret the signals that it receives. The entry system evaluates the signals to determine if and at which level the positions should be opened. The exit system evaluates the signals to determine if and at which level the open positions should be closed.The propose of an entry system is to find market points which allow to open positions with high potential reward and low potential risk (high reward-to-risk ratio). The risk is defined as the pip distance from the entry price to the next support or resistance level lying opposite to the entry direction (above entry for sell and below entry for buy). The reward is defined as the pip distance from the entry price to the next support or resistance level lying in the direction of the entry (above entry for buy and below entry for sell). It is generally advised that the traders accept only the trades with the reward-to-risk ratio of over 2 (e.g. risk=60 pips, reward=130 pips). All the same, depending on the accuracy of a trading system (i.e. the percentage of the winning trades of all the past trades) this requirement might be shifted to a lower or a higher value without sacrificing the profitability of the system. This is because the true measure of the long term profitability of a forex trading system is neither the average per-trade reward-to-risk ratio nor the accuracy of the system but the combination of these two measures which is calculated as the mathematical expectation of a trading system. In the absence of the accuracy measure of a trading system (as is the case with some discretionary trading systems) - the trader ought strive to find entries with the greatest possible reward-to-risk ratio.Note: Elliott wave analysis allows to find entries with extremely high reward-to-risk ratios (e.g. just check some of reports on MTPredictor's site). It is worth noting that MTPredictor automatically calculates the reward-to-risk ratios and helps to find optimum entry points based on these ratios. Some Elliot wave software developers (e.g. Advanced Get) also supply their subscribers with detailed Elliott wave trading plans.The aim of an exit system is to protect the capital base and the unrealized profits. The capital base is shielded by ensuring that the trades are exited with a fixed loss when the reasons for holding them are no longer valid. This is done by triggering a stop-loss order on your forex brokerage account when the price crosses the level which defined your risk at the entry. If you are a discretionary trader, forcing yourself to place the slop-loss on each trade and to stick to it no matter what will make you very selective about your entries - which ought increase your profitability. The unrealized profits are protected either by a take-profit order which is triggered on your brokerage account when the price reaches the level which defined your profit at the entry or with the help of the trailing stop-loss which gradually locks in more profits as the price moves in your favour. In fact, the trailing stop-loss exit can be more suitable than the fixed take-profit exit if you wish to profit from the extending "character" of some impulse waves. In such a event the trailing stop-loss can be placed just a few pips opposite to the trendline which defines impulse wave. There is one more type of exit which can be used to protect the trader from missing trading opportunities - the time exit. A time exit is triggered if a trade hasn't reached either its stop-loss or take-profit level in the specified period of time. Exiting such trades reduces the chances that the capital will be tied up when better opportunities appear on the other currency pairs.Note: Most forex newswires (e.g. Marketnews) are a great source of real-time information on the location of the major support and resistance levels and clusters of large orders that are watched by professional forex traders and which can be used to manually update the position of your trailing stop-loss.2.3. Development of a Currency Trading System.Making a mechanical forex trading system involves a number of steps: 1) Selecting the inputs for the trading system - technical analysis or fundamental analysis tools which will generate the signals for the system; 2) Developing the rule-set which will operate on these signals; 3) Optimizing the parameters of the analysis tools used to produce the signals; 4) Backtesting and forwardtesting the system over historical price data. Each of these steps is covered in more detail below:2.3.1. Selecting the Inputs for the Trading SystemIt is important to base your selection of inputs to the system on a sensible premise about the way the currency markets operate. As an example, you can use 200-day moving average to determine if the market is in a long-term up or down trend because a large proportion of professional forex traders use this technical tool to measure market trendiness. It is also better to combine technical analysis tools of different type and scale because this increases the chances of finding high-probability entry points (those that are likely to be followed by sharp currency price moves in your favour), which should, in turn, contribute to the overall system accuracy.If you use technical tools only on the higher time-frame charts like the daily or the weekly charts this will increase the duration of the trades and the time periods out of the market - because the signals will take longer to form. Either of these outcomes can have detrimental impact on the trader and investor morale during the inevitable losing streaks as is shown by our forex trading simulator (Please note: The size of this page is 0,6 Mbs and it requires that you have Flash installed and Javascript enabled in your browser). which can last longer than they are naturally prepared to wait. This makes it important to focus on lower time-frame charts (e.g. hourly charts) for signal generation which will lead to shorter trade durations and, consequently, to quicker recoveries from the drawdowns. Shorter trade durations can also help to the trader to defeat the temptation to overtrade because he or she can expect to see the next entry signal in the next couple of days - not in the next couple of weeks.Quote: "Your freedom to choose your time-frame is too valuable to lose. Investors and margined speculators, on the other hand, can choose their own time-frames. This is one of their positional advantages, to use a favourite notion of Larry Hite* , one of the founders of Mint Investment Corp* - one of the largest of the futures fund operators. Investors and speculators can choose. Obviously it makes sense to choose time frames which match any natural rhythms that can be discerned in the currency markets." John Percival in his book "The Way of the Dollar".Note: If you are using the Elliott Wave analysis your average holding period will depend on the degree of the impulse or corrective waves that you are trading.Choosing which fundamental factors are best for your forex trading system (e.g. as inputs to your neural network) can be very hard because the effect of various economic indicators on the currency prices changes with time. In other words, the strength of correlation between the price of a currency pair and the fundamental factors relevant to it is not fixed (even with interest rate differentials). In contrast, the relationship between the price patterns (especially the classical price patterns) and trader psychology (the driving force behind most important price moves) remains fairly stable over the years. This is the reason why the forex traders are encouraged to dedicate most of their efforts to building trading systems around the technical analysis.Another all-important question is the time horizon of the prediction that the trader is trying to make with his system. Better not to try to forecast currency prices too far into the future. This is because the number and the complexity of interaction of various technical and fundamental factors rises geometrically with each trading day. It is, therefore, best to "leave" this task to high-end investment banks and houses which alone have the capacity to perform the necessary calculations inherent in longer-term currency course forecasting. It is more practical for the typical currency trader to concentrate on capturing the so-called "knee-jerk" market reactions driven by crowd emotionalism through the analysis of the current technical or fundamental conditions.Quote: "Rule 5: Be prepared for anything don't try to predict what will happen or when. Investing is a skill, not a science. The Zen swordsman dicsniplines body and mind to counter any blow spontaneously; he does not anticipate the moves of an opponent, for that impedes his ability to react. Likewise, professional investors know they cannot control the real estate or stock market, let alone the global economy. Instead, they train themselves to be financially intelligent, to think confidently and creatively when opportunities or problems arise." one of the The Seven Rules of Investing given in Robert Kiyosaki's book "You Can Choose to Be Rich".You should also try not to include too many indicators (over 12) in your forex trading system. This is because probability that the system will perform like it did in the past diminishes as you add more indicators to your system. As a rule, the larger the number of indicators in your system the longer the period of historical currency price data you need to backtest the system on.Note: There is no necessity to learn all the available indicators and technical analysis methods before you can start creating your own robust trading systems. It is usually enough to master just a few "basic" technical indicators and formations to start combining them to identify high probability entry and exit points. The fundamental and technical reports issues by the investment banks are one of the best sources of information on which technical and/or fundamental signals are watched by the professional trading community that you can include in your forex trading system. In the long run it is best to stick to a sound forex trading strategy, that has high probability of being profitable in the long-run, than to dissipate your capital among a variety of "promising" methods.2.3.2. Developing the Rule-Set which will Operate on the SignalsYou can create these rules based on your observation of how the prices move in relation to various technical and fundamental indicators. For example, you might notice that currency prices tend to resume trending behaviour after they correct toward and touch 200-day moving average. You can use this observance to formulate a rule which will enter the markets when the prices bounce off from the 200-day moving average. You could also notice that the prices tend to stop trending when they touch the outer daily Bollinger bands. You can use this information to create a rule which will exit the trades once the prices penetrate the outer daily Bollinger Band. Because making rule-sets for mechanical trading systems forces you to quantify your insights about the market this practice aids to clarify them.The rule-set of a forex trading system is in essence the clarified version of the weighing algorithms that you naturally create in your mind as you learn the technical and fundamental analysis and observe the price action. I say "weighing" because most of the technical rules are transcribed in your mind as fuzzy patterns (e.g. "The longer the shadows of a doji the more likely the reversal" or "The steeper the trendline - the more bullish or bearish the market sentiment."). When you make the trading system, you transfer your knowledge to the computer in the form that can be understood by it. Admittedly, the quality of the computerized model very often will fall short of the actual mental model that you keep in your head. Nevertheless, the real advantage of the "mechanicizing" your market knowledge is the power to objectively determine the validity of your trading ideas by the process of the backtesting. It should be noted that the closest the computers approach to simulating the complexity of human comprehension of the market patterns is in the neural network packages.Neural network packages can be especially effective if you wish to model your way of weighing the strength of support or resistance levels. For example, if you believe that fibonacci retracements are more reliable entry points if they are confirmed by reversal candlestick patterns and/or RSI divergence you can "ask" a neural network to search for past occurrences of this pattern combination and determine the actual numeric weight that should be placed on each of these technical signals for the entry or exit to occur. This process is very advantageous because it allows the computer to extend your natural pattern recognition ability by perfecting (or objectifying) the weights associated with each technical input/signal. This way you can objectively measure the strength or the beauty of the technical setups that you encounter in your trading (e.g. the resultant model might require the position to be opened if the total sum of signal weighs is bigger than 0,5 where a reversal candlestick signal is "worth" 0,15, fibonacci retracement is "worth" 0,3 and the RSI divergence is "worth" 0,45). In essence, your forex trading system is the description of how beautiful your trading setups should be, where "beauty" is defined as the convergence of confirming signals from different type and/or scale technical analysis tools. Advanced users of the neural networks can go even further by tying the position size (within the maximum percentage value set by their money management system) to the strength or the beauty of the technical setup. If done decently this practice will allow them to make the most of the best trading opportunities while simultaneously reducing the exposure on the less promising setups.

How to develop a profitable forex trading stratey

Before you plunge into one of the most liquid, unpredictable and profitable markets in the world, there are some things that you should know about before putting your money in the hands of a forex broker. When money is involved, there are a lot of things you should consider, and these are the key to developing the best Forex strategy, for you to start making a profit. For instance, there is a great deal of money management that must be put in place before you run off with a lot of hope in your pocket. Hope is not going to pay the bills. Your money is and you need to know when and how much of your money you are going to use.Always set yourself some realistic targets and limits to ensure that you do not spend too much money. Also, do not fall prey to the gambling endemic that is afflicting many Forex traders - this means they simply cannot stop trading no matter how much they loose and they often make irrational decisions in order to 'win' back the money that they have lost. Set yourself some parameters and stick to them, you will regret the fact that you account has run dry and you start to owe the brokerage a sum of money. Also, always have some risk capital on hand so that when things do go wrong, you will be able to bail yourself out. The total sum of your investment and risk capital should be an amount that you are able to afford.Nobody should go into trading with their life savings in tow. The capital you put into the commodities market should be capital you can spend and if you do lose, will not have an adverse affect on your life style. That said, Forex trading is all about watching market patterns and market psychology. Unlike normal and traditional commodities trading, many people would say that the Forex market falls into a pattern when it comes to either a crisis or an upheaval within currencies. Issues like inflation, political violence and economic decisions can adversely affect the performance of the currency pair you have chosen. But there is always a pattern and this pattern is the structure of many trading strategies of experienced investors. For example, you must learn that there are many 'safe' currencies in the market that investors flock to when there is wind of a calamity in global economies. This is just one aspect.Market psychology is ruled by major decisions my collective moves in the market. Because of the fact that huge multicontinental banks are the biggest driving forces within the FX market, they have pre planned moves when situations come up. Your job as an investor is to read the signs and react accordingly. The good thing about Forex is that is a very liquid market, so you can pull out any time you want - or on the flip side can invest in a click of a mouse. With these in mind when investing

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