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Singapore Consumer Prices Fall For Fifth Consecutive Month
The Department of Statistics said consumer prices dropped 0.3% year-on-year in August, slower than a 0.5% fall seen in the preceding two months. The rate came in less than economists’ forecast for a 0.4% decline.
Housing costs fell 1.6% on an annual basis, due to lower electricity and gas tariffs and cheaper liquefied petroleum gas. Transport and communication costs slipped 0.4%, mainly due to cheaper petrol prices. Recreation costs were down 1.4%.
Meanwhile, health care prices climbed 2%, while food as well as clothing & footwear prices were up 0.9% and 1.7%, respectively.
Month-on-month, consumer prices rose 0.4%, but the pace was slower than the 1.1% in July. The increase was mainly due to higher costs of transport and communication, clothing and footwear, as also housing and stationery items.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, consumer prices climbed 0.4% in August, faster than the 0.3% in the preceding month. Excluding accommodation costs, consumer prices were down 0.9% year-on-year in August, but rose 0.5% compared to the previous month.
For the first eight months of the year, consumer prices were higher by 0.5% from the same period last year.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore in a report on September 2 said consumer prices could be flat this year compared to its earlier forecast for a 1.5% drop. The authority expects a slower pace of contraction for the economy.
The MAS expects the economy to decline 3.6% this year, slower than a 6.5% fall predicted in its June survey and compares with the 4% to 6% decline expected by the government for the year. For the next year, the agency forecasts the growth to be 4.5%, higher than the 4.2% rise expected in the June survey.
Meanwhile, the Asian Development Bank in a report Tuesday said developing Asian economies were poised to lead the global economic recovery, proving to be more resilient than initially thought. Moreover, the bank also raised its growth forecast for the year for the region. The lender expects a V-shaped rebound for the regional economy.
The latest update of Asian Development Outlook 2009 projects developing Asian economies, which excludes Japan, to grow 3.9% this year, faster than a 3.4% growth estimated earlier. Further, it revised upward the growth forecast for the next year, expecting a growth of 6.4% compared to a 6% rise estimated earlier. The Manila-based bank expects Singapore to shrink 5% this year and grow 3.5% next year.
Gold Slips Slightly, Holds Above $1,010
December gold closed at $1,010.30 per ounce, up $3.20 on the session. Prices reached as high as $1,019.50 and as low as $1,008.
The Federal Open Market Committee’s policy meeting will conclude with the interest rate decision on Wednesday. Rates are widely predicted to remain at 0.25%.
There was no major economic data on Friday’s calendar. On Monday, leading indicators data for August is expected at 10 a.m. ET. A rise of 0.7% is forecast, compared to a 0.6% increase in July.
The dollar was little-changed against the euro, failing to mount much of a comeback from a yearly-low. The buck did climb to a two-week high against the sterling.
Gold fell $6.60 on Thusday after earlier reaching as high as $1,025.80 in overnight trading, approaching the record $1,033.90 reached in March 2008. When adjusted for inflation, however, gold moved near $2,000 back in 1980.
UK Sept. House Prices Increase On Dwindling Stock: Rightmove
Average asking prices were up 0.6% in September from August as autumn sellers raised price expectations, the property website Rightmove reported. House prices had declined 2.2% in August after rising 0.6% in July.
Currently, the average property asking price is GBP 223,996. Year-on-year, house prices dropped at a slower pace of 1.5% in September compared to a 3.1% fall in August.
Rightmove recorded the lowest average stock levels per branch for 18 months, with 29% more properties coming off the market than coming to the market.
With 151,591 properties measured as coming off the market this month, it indicates why property scarcity in popular areas is underpinning price levels, Rightmove said. This trend is clearly evident in the south of the nation.
According to the property website, would-be sellers were deterred from trading up by dwindling property choice and high deposit requirements. With choice getting increasingly limited in popular areas, they need to have a buyer lined up to improve their chances of securing their next home.
The recession hit prices harder in the north and it was compounded by conservative attitude of lenders. “Lenders quite naturally prefer to lend to lower risk borrowers in better locations, with better job security, larger deposits and more resilient property values,” Miles Shipside, commercial director of Rightmove said.
He expects many of the aspiring sellers to be trapped in their homes until house prices increase enough for them to join the equity-rich club. But, even then they would be heavily dependent on the number of bottom-of-the-chain first-time-buyers.
There are lots of positive signals like rising confidence, lower stock and increasing number of people searching houses, but too few buyers can put down the 40% deposits that are needed in order to secure the best mortgage deals, said Shipside.
SECO Upgrades Swiss GDP Outlook; Sees Sluggish Recovery
The expert group of the Federal Government expects the economy to shrink 1.7% during 2009, better than the 2.7% decline estimated in June, the agency said. With the global economy running out of steam again in the course of 2010, the government expects the economy to post a moderate growth of 0.4% next year compared to the previous forecast for a 0.4% fall.
While making the assessment, the expert group assumed that the current strong global economic upswing dynamics will loose a great deal of its momentum in 2010 with fiscal impulses fading out. But, cyclical upswing dynamics would continue for a longer period following the previous sharp drop in demand.
Recession in Switzerland was relatively mild compared to international scale due to a stable domestic demand which partly offset losses in the export industry and the finance sector. Strongest negative impulses on GDP came from a sharp decline in the value added in the financial sector.
With momentum picking up slowly, the prospects for the labor market remain bleak. Employment is likely to fall in the coming quarters and would not start to increase before late 2010. The jobless rate is set to rise to an annual average of 5.2% next year from this year’s 3.8%.
Regarding consumer prices, SECO expects the phase of negative consumer price development to halt within the coming few months as the price decreasing effects resulting from crude oil prices will disappear in the coming months. Consumer prices are expected to rise 0.9% in 2010.
On September 17, the Swiss National Bank kept its key interest rate unchanged at 0.25% for the second rate-setting session in a row. Also, the bank revised its economic outlook for 2009 citing improvements in the global economy and at home. It now expects the economy to shrink between 1.5% and 2% this year.
The revisions of SECO and the central bank were in contrast to the assessment of the Zurich-based KOF. The think-tank sees a contraction of 3.3% in 2009, worse than its March’s forecast of a 2.4% shrinkage. For 2010, the research institute expects a GDP decline of 0.6%, while it had predicted a 0.3% contraction in March.
Elsewhere, the Federal Customs Administration reported a decline in the Switzerland’s trade surplus for August. The surplus stood at CHF 1.79 billion, down from CHF 2.21 billion in July.
European Economics Preview
At 2.45am ET, the French statistical office INSEE is scheduled to issue consumer spending for August. Consumer spending is forecast to rise 0.3% month-on-month in August following a 1.4% growth in July.
Thereafter, French business confidence survey results are due. Business sentiment is expected to rise to 81 in September from 78 in August.
The release of the Flash Purchasing Managers’ Index reports for major Eurozone economies is set to start at 3.00 am ET. The first one expected to hit the wires is the Flash French PMI for both manufacturing and service sectors. Thereafter, Flash German and Eurozone PMI data are also due.
At 4.30am ET, the Bank of England is slated to issue minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee held on September 9 and 10. The MPC had decided to maintain its interest rate at 0.5% and also voted to continue the GBP 175 billion asset purchase programme using central bank reserves. In the meantime, the Agents’ summary of business conditions report is also due.
At the same time, the British Bankers’ Association is set to release the details of mortgages approved in August. The number of mortgages approved in August is seen at 40,500 compared to 38,181 in July.
Half an hour later, Eurozone industrial new orders data is due from the Eurostat. After increasing 3.1% in June, economists expect new orders to grow 2%. At the same time, the Icelandic wage index is also due.
At 8.00am ET, the Norges bank is set to announce the interest rate decision. The Oslo-based central bank is expected to hold the interest rate at a record low level of 1.25%.
Friday, September 11, 2009
Verifone Stock Options Indicate Bullish Positioning At Payment Provider
The designer of systems that enable secure electronic payments edged onto our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner this afternoon after a large bullish stance was taken in the January 2010 contract. Shares of the firm have increased nearly 1% today to stand at $14.13. The options action observed indicates that one investor expects significant appreciation in shares by next year. But, the trader apparently does not see the stock rising much higher than the current 52-week high of 19.91, attained nearly one year ago on September 12, 2008. The bullish trader was seen partially financing the purchase of a long call spread by selling 12,000 out-of-the-money puts at the January 10 strike for 55 cents each. He then bought 12,000 calls at the January 12.5 strike for 3.10 per contract, spread against the sale of the same number of calls at the higher January 20 strike for 42 cents premium apiece. The net cost of the spread was reduced to 2.13. Thus, the trader stands to accumulate maximum potential profits of 5.37 should the stock surges to $20.00 by expiration in January. Shares would need to rally a whopping 42% from the current price for the trader to pocket the maximum available profits of approximately $6,444,000. We note that the 36,000 lot trade put on today exceeds the previous existing open interest on the stock of 29,251.
SPDR Gold Trust (GLD: 98.3326 +0.6326 +0.65%)- Option traders established ratio put spreads on the gold exchange-traded fund today amid a 1% rally in shares to $97.86. Gold is actually a couple of dollars lower today as the dollar regains its feet and investors critically assess the rationale for gold’s recent ascent. Today’s put spreads represent downside protection for investors hoping to lock in gains assumed to have been made during the recent rally in the price of gold. Using the November contract 2,500 puts were picked up at the November 97 strike for 4.20 apiece, and spread against the sale of 5,000 puts at the lower November 93 strike for 2.25 each. The investor pockets a net credit of 30 cents on the trade, which he will retain in full if shares of the GLD remain higher than $97.00 by expiration. Beneath a price of $97.00 for GLD, the investor faces rising profits should shares fall to $93.00 at which point maximum gains of 4.0 per contract would be made. Beneath this point, the investor is net short of a put and effectively watching gains disappear by the time shares reach $89.00.
Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC: 27.5818 -0.2782 -1.00%)- It appears that despite little change in the price of shares at Wells Fargo today ($27.65) some institutional money is betting on further downside. Two large plays were apparent earlier. In the January 2010 puts one investor bought a ratio put spread involving 150,000 contracts. Buying 50,000 puts at the 25 strike and selling 100,000 puts at the 20 strike cost a vastly reduced net premium of just 35 cents. The outright premium to get short stock at the 25 strike at 2.35 today would imply a breakeven on this trade of $22.65 but this investor has reduced that to a breakeven instead at $24.65. Maximum profits of 4.65 are achieved should the share price reach the rather bearish 20 strike by January, which is consistent with a decline of 28%. Profits would wilt should WFC reach $15.35. In the October contract one investor paid 60 cents to get long of 40,000 puts implying a near-term decline at Wells Fargo. Since the start of the month investors have lifted its share price steadily with a higher low apparent on the chart. Implied option volatility on the wane today provides little sense of increased panic.
Semiconductor HOLDRs Trust (SMH: 25.65 -0.50 -1.91%)- Bearish activity on the semiconductors fund launched the SMH ticker symbol onto our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner this morning. Shares are currently off slightly by less than 0.25% to stand at $26.10. Trading of options set to expire in October suggests that some investors do not expect the SMH to surpass the current 52-week high on the stock of $27.57, attained nearly one year ago on September 19, 2008. Such sentiment was indicated by a bearish risk reversal, which was established through the short sale of about 5,000 calls at the October 27 strike for 53 cents apiece. The calls were spread against the purchase of approximately 10,000 puts at the lower October 25 strike for 64 cents per contract. Selling the calls offset roughly half of the cost of picking up the protective put options. The transaction will result in profits if shares fall substantially below the $25.00-level by expiration. Perhaps investors employing the risk reversal strategy are long the underlying stock. If this is the case, the actions taken today have partially offset the cost of protecting a long stock position.
Comcast Corp. (CMCSK: 16.49 -0.08 -0.48%) - Options activity by one investor on CMCSK this morning points to medium-term pessimism on the provider of entertainment and communications services going forward. Shares of Comcast are currently trading 0.5% higher to $16.50. The trader appears to have established a bearish risk reversal in the January 2010 contract by shorting calls to finance the purchase of put options. He shed 5,000 calls at the January 16 strike for a premium of 1.57 each and simultaneously bought 5,000 puts at the same strike for 1.40 per contract. The investor receives a net credit on the transaction of 17 cents. Additional profits may accumulate if shares of CMCSK decline beneath $16.00 by expiration next year. The net credit received may act as a buffer against losses in the event that shares remain higher than $16.00. However, losses would begin to accrue for the trader if shares are higher than the breakeven point to the upside at $16.17 by expiration. We’re unsure whether this transaction involves the simultaneous purchase of stock meaning the option combination would act as insurance.
Bay Street Stocks Add To Multi-Month Best Behind Resource Sectors - Canadian Commentary
The S&P/TSX Composite Index has jumped 97.84 points or 0.87% to move at 11,253.13 points. The market gained for a fifth time in six sessions.
Energy stocks are up 2.5%, led by a 6% spike for Encana (ECA.TO). The company announced plans to split into two separate companies last night. The move is expected to close November 30.
Gold stocks have gained 1.7% as the precious metal hit a fresh 18-month high. Iamgold (IMG.TO) is up 4.1%, Eldorado (ELD.TO) has added 4% and Royal Gold (RGL.TO) has added 3.5%.
In other corporate news, Altius Minerals Corporation (ALS.TO) has climbed 1.6% after the company reported first quarter net loss of C$597,000 or C$0.02 per share, compared to net earnings of C$380,000 or C$0.01 per share in the year-ago quarter.
Jaguar Mining (JAG.TO) has slipped 0.6% after the company said that it has entered into an agreement with a group of initial purchasers to issue and sell US$150 million of 4.50% senior convertible notes due 2014.
Harry Winston Diamond (HW.TO) has slipped 4.6% after the company posted second quarter net loss of US$24.5 million or US$0.32 per share, compared to net earnings of US$49.9 million or US$0.81 per share in the prior year quarter.
Compton Petroleum Corp. (CMT.TO) has plunged 20.4% after the company announced it will issue an aggregate of 120 million units on a bought deal basis at a price of C$1.25 per unit for aggregate gross proceeds of C$150 million.
In economic news, Canadian new home prices rose 0.3% in July following a 0.2% decline in June. This was the first increase since September 2008. Economists expected new home prices to slip 0.1% in July.
Sunday, September 6, 2009
European Economics Preview: ECB Expected To Hold Key Rate
At 2.45am ET, the French ILO jobless rate for the second quarter is due. In the first quarter, the unemployment rate was 9.1%.
Thereafter, the Riksbank interest rate decision is due at 3.30am ET. In the meantime, the Statistics Netherlands is scheduled to issue Dutch consumer prices details. Annual inflation is seen at 0.4% in August, up from 0.2% in July.
The services PMI reports for major European economies are scheduled for the day. The Italian services PMI, to be released at 3.45am ET, is expected to rise to 46 in August. The French services PMI is seen at 48.9 and German PMI at 54.1, both reading are expected to match their flash estimates. Further, at 4.00am ET, the Eurozone PMI is also predicted to come in line with flash reading of 49.5.
Half an hour later, UK’s HM Treasury is set to issue official reserves for August. Meanwhile, British services PMI is also due. The index is expected to rise to 54 in August from 53.2 in July.
At 5.00am ET, the Eurostat is slated to issue Eurozone retail sales data for July. After declining 0.2% in June, retail sales are forecast to rise 0.1% in July.
Japan Capital Spending Down For Ninth Straight Quarter
Overall capital spending in Japanese industries decreased 21.7% in the second quarter compared to the 25.3% drop in the previous quarter. Economists were looking for a more severe 23% fall. Excluding spending in the software industry, capital spending decreased 22.2% annually. On a quarterly basis, spending was down 4.5% in the second quarter. Capital investments were down across almost all of the major industrial sectors.
Analyzing by separate industry groups, spending in the manufacturing sector plunged 32% year-on-year in the second quarter, faster than the 21.2% fall witnessed in the last quarter, and accounted for about 37% of the total spending. Of this, the information & communication electronics equipment industry recorded the biggest annual fall, down 51.9%. It was followed by electrical machinery, equipment & supplies, which slipped 42.8%, and transportation equipment, down 41.4%.
Spending by the non-manufacturing sector slid 14.2% on year in the second quarter. The fall was mainly driven by the goods rental & leasing industry, which slid 61.8% in the second quarter. Other notable decreases include the services industry, in which spending dropped 55.1%, and production, transmission & distribution of electricity, down 9.8%. The fall across the board was slightly offset by the real estate industry, where investments rose 25.3%, and wholesale & retail trade, up 4.2%.
Spending by total number of corporations with capital over 1 billion yen decreased 17.3% year-on-year in the second quarter, and amounted to 5.5 trillion in comparison to 8.4 trillion spent by the same category of corporations in the previous quarter.
Total sales were down 17% year-on-year in the second quarter compared to the 20.4% fall in the previous quarter. Sales in the manufacturing sector, accounting for about 28% of the total sales, dropped 26.8%, while the non-manufacturing sector sales decreased 12.4%. Sales of petroleum & coal products decreased 44.7%, and transportation equipment sales were down 38.3%. Iron & steel and fabricated metal products recorded sales declines of 37.4% each.
Ordinary profits plummeted 53% annually in the second quarter compared to the 69% fall in the first quarter. Profits plunged across most of the industry groups, with the construction industry recording the largest fall at a rate of 215.5%. Other industries that recorded declining profits were information & communication electronics equipment, iron & steel, and electrical machinery, equipment & supplies, down 189.5%, 147.3%, and 117%, respectively.
The ratio of ordinary profits to sales was up 2.4% in the second quarter compared to the 1.4% rise in the first quarter.
Premature Exit May Stall Global Recovery
Speaking at the sixth annual Bundesbank Lecture in Berlin, Strauss-Kahn said he sees a real danger that policymakers may jeopardize the recovery by exiting from crisis measures too soon. But, he said it is the right time for policy makers to formulate their exit strategies.
The IMF official said, “Given the fragility of the recovery, there are risks that it could stall.”
A day earlier, Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan raised similar concerns saying that a premature withdrawal of stimulus measures would stall global recovery. He said Australia would gradually withdraw their stimulus measures in the last quarter of this year and would continue it through to 2011.
Meanwhile, Strauss-Kahn stated that early exit from accommodative monetary and fiscal policies is a principal concern. In addition, problems in the financial sector could persist or even intensify further, particularly if efforts to restore banks to health are not completed.
“Now is not the time to exit. But I would like to make it clear that the ECB has an exit strategy, and we stand ready to put it into action when the appropriate time comes,” Trichet said at the ECB Watchers conference in Frankfurt. He stressed that it would be premature to declare that the crisis over.
Trichet noted that the ECB’s non-standard measures, introduced to address the financial crisis, were designed with exit considerations in mind.
Selective Remains the Key is usd
ForexCult.com mentioned that "although we expect a continual rally in the USD, traders need to be careful of what they buy." having that said because we had indicated that the USD could rally against the Eur and GBP but was turning resistance very close against the JP Yen.
Those moves that we were looking have already happened and are now becoming a bit over extended. However and for the most, the downtrend in the USD against the JP Yen and its up trends against the Euro currency and GBP should remain intact but being more precise will continue to be the key to trading currencies in the near future.
The marquee event of the week will be the United States retail sales report and even though it seems that consumer spending will falter, it may be a bit better and not such a bad report as market and speculator might have suggested.
The drop in consumer confidence and non-farm payrolls point to weakness, but the coming rise in food and the energy prices along with the stronger earnings from local companies such as Wal-Mart and Costco probably suggest otherwise.
The main reason why the market got a huge response to this report is because of its affect on a central bank's monetary policy decision. However with the Fed, a pause in Jun has already been discounted by the market.
The United States economy has been weakened massively in the past few months and will probably or shall we say quite surely to weaken in the coming months as well considering the next coming report, but after having cut interest rates by 325bp since August, the Fed has decided that it is time to shift their focus to inflation.
Oil (on $126 pick) and corn prices hit a new record high, making price pressures a growing concern and making harder for the proletarians to live peacefully.
Unfortunately for the Fed, they have no room to raise interest rates, leaving the USD as one of their only tools to curb inflationary pressures. By hinting that they will be taking a break from cutting interest rates, they have already gained some stability and control in the USD and in addition to the retail sales report, we shall also expect consumer prices, the Philly Fed survey, industrial production, and housing starts in next week.
CAD High Reward to Risk Trade
Not much has changed regarding the EURUSD this morning. We wrote yesterday that "the drop from 1.5701 is in 5 waves and is most likely wave 3 within a 5 wave drop from 1.6039. A corrective 4th wave advance is expected to unfold over the next several days. 4th wave usually reach at least the 4th wave of one less degree (1.5083 in this case). The 38.2% of 3 is also a common terminal point for 4th waves (1.5153 in this case)." Although a larger correction to the mentioned levels is preferred, the advance from 1.4815 is clearly in 3 waves and therefore corrective; leaving the EURUSD vulnerable to additional weakness as long as price is below 1.4981.
Things are playing out as expected with the USDJPY. "Bigger picture, we maintain that wave Y (the third wave in a 3 wave advance from 95.72) is underway from 103.76 and will end in the 113.25-116.65 zone (Fibo levels from the 124.13-95.72 drop) and give way to a long term reversal. The rally from 103.76 is probably the first zigzag in a double zigzag (as wave Y), so expectations are for a drop to reach the 38.2% of 103.76-110.40 (107.86)." The USDJPY fell to 108.36 this morning but we favor additional weakness with the first objective being 107.86 and the second 107.10.
The GBPUSD has plunged and is nearing the longer term support levels that we have mentioned in recent months near 1.85. The short term trend remains bearish as long as price is below 1.9034. It is worth mentioning that 13 day rate of change is at its lowest level since August 1997. When we do get an upward correction, it will probably be sharp.
The USDCHF has nearly reached the initial objective (already) of 1.0986 (the 100% extension of .9647-1.0624/1.0010. A reaction lower is expected to occur off of this line. There is potential support near 1.0740.
The AUDUSD decline is nothing has continued and counting short term waves is an exercise in futility right now. The pair may test the January (and 2008) low of .8512 before we see a rebound. Longer term expectations are for the drop to reach .6770 but there will be corrections along the way. It is not safe to enter short at this level since the risk of a large and sharp correction are simply too high.
The NZDUSD spiked lower this morning, touching the 161.8% extension of .8215-.7536/.7921. Short term channel support should lead to a larger advance from near current price. Resistance begins at .7082.
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Monday, August 31, 2009
Irish Bank Lending Continued To Decline In July
The Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland Monday said the total value of loans outstanding to the private sector fell by EUR3.7 billion from June, having fallen by EUR1.4 billion in that month. Much of the decline reflected write-downs of loans, although even without changes in the valuation of existing credits, lending fell on the month.
As a result, lending was down 2.2% from July 2008. In June, lending was down 0.7% from the corresponding month a year earlier, the first time an annualized fall has been recorded during the current financial crisis. In the boom years running up to the start of the global credit crunch in late 2007, the annual rate of growth in loans to the private sector regularly exceeded 20%.
The decline in outstanding credit during July was largely due to a EUR2.1 billion drop in the value of loans to non-financial corporations. Much of that reflected write-downs, although the underlying stock of loans also fell.
Loans outstanding to households fell by EUR404 million, with mortgage loans down EUR71 million, the fourth straight month of decline.
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Dollar-Euro Forex Analysis for Forex Traders
Friday corrected a major portion of the move up on Thursday, and early trading this week has been mixed forming a range.
Minor resistance has formed at 1.4310 with further resistance at 1.4320. A climb above will likely target 1.4350 followed by 1.4380 and 1.4400-1.4410.
Support is 1.4290, 1.4280 with a break below heading for 1.4250 and (if needed) 1.4220-1.4210.
False breakout are likely in this current climate.
Forex Analysis by Cory Mitchell at ForexPros. com. For more details about Forex Trading and Tips for decent earnings through Forex Trading, Please check Forexpros. com
USD - JPY Forex Analysis for Forex Trading
The breakout lower has a target of 92.20. Further support is in the 91.80 register.
By Cory Mitchell at ForexPros. com. For more details about Forex Trading and Tips for decent earnings through Forex Trading, Please check Forexpros. com
Sunday, August 23, 2009
How to Triple Your Forex Trading Profits
1. Always prepare for the worst, think how to protect your trade first!
Almost all the traders will think how much money or profits they are going to make when they trade. This is a wrong mindset. If you are a beginner in forex trading, then you should assume the worst first and not thinking about profits in the first place. You should be very eager to protect your trade from losses by shifting it to break even after your trade has around more than 40 pips in profits. The trade is also considered won even it has broke even.
2. Don't take high leverage for granted.
Many forex brokers offer a high leverage of 100:1 to 400:1. True it is very tempting, but you should not use very high leverage for a beginning and for a small forex account, it is not advisable to use more than 50:1 or 100:1, so as to prevent your account from going bust. Traders thought they can win big using high leverage, but what if they loose? Their trading capital goes into the drain too.
3. Not risking more than 1% to 5% of your trading account.
This is a very important money management rule. How much do you risk for every trade? Forex trading is all about high probability and calculated risk. If you think you can't take risk at all, then you shouldn't be learning to trade forex at all. For a small $1000 account, it may seems by risking 1%, the gains are very small too, but that's the right way to build your capital. For me, I'm a conservative trader and I risk only 2% of my trading account per trade.
Who Wants to Be a Forex Trading Millionaire
1. What is the current condition of the forex market? Before you take in any forex trading signals, you have to be sure what conditions is the market showing, trendy or choppy. You can use indexes such as the Asia/Pacific, Europe and Dow Jones Industrial Average as tools to evaluate the market. Most of the time, the movements of the market are based on what the current economy is performing, and that will be the basis for traders to make a decision.
2. Are you mentally alert or stressful? In forex trading, it is very important that you maintain a calm and fresh mind before you even start to look at the charts. Do not trade when you are tired or stressed as there is a high tendency that you will make some mistakes and put your forex investments at risk. Without the right mind, you won't be able to concentrate well even if you are using one of the best forex trading systems .
3. Do you have a stop loss or target to exit a trade? One of the biggest mistakes that forex traders made is trading without a stop loss. I have stressed many times that every position must have a stop loss but till now, there are many of my members still trading without setting a stop. Are you one of them?
Without a stop loss, do you know that you can wipe out your trading account very easily? The problem with those people who do not set a stop is because they do not want to loose, and I mentioned that forex trading definitely will have losses. And that's how professional traders live their lives. It is how you manage your losses and not how you try to avoid losses. Never have a huge stop loss unless you are doing swing trading. Even so, 50 to 80 pips will be a good guide.
4. Do you know when to enter a trade? After knowing when to cut your losses, it is important that you enter a trade with good timing especially if you are doing intraday trading. If you do not have a good forex strategy, you can look for some online trading software which provides accurate forex signals that you can follow. For me, I use oscillators like Stochastic and RSI intensively because they are the main forex indicators for my trading system.
Timing is important if you have a tight stop loss, as you would want to catch the trade early but at the period where there is a higher winning probability. I know this is not very easy for a beginner, but practice makes perfect!
Mini Forex Trading: For Beginners In Forex
Now, newbies to forex has three options:
(1) they can start out immediately with live trading in a standard broker account, wherein they can invest ranging from $1,000 to $5,000 (gives a great deal of risk for a novice and therefore not recommended);
(2) they can start with live/actual trading in a mini-account (In general, they'll need around $250 for this, but there are always brokers who'll let them start with a lower cost); and
(3) begin with a demo account as they pick up their trading skills without investing any real kind of money, then as they go on and continue in making good profits, they have the option to switch between a mini-account or a full brokerage account (depending on the capital that they have and their strategies, of course).
As for the advantages of the mini-account, most users will choose the third option, which is the demo account. Why? It's because it's really much safer to use toy money rather than real ones online for days, weeks or even months! With a demo account, they will be given an opportunity to try out different kinds of strategies in trading. But, on the other hand, running a demo account for too long can impose a false sense of security to the user, as they may be practicing with the strategies that may not be really effective when it comes to the trading in real life.
So what this kind of account does is that it teaches the trader to make profits out of medium to high risk strategies, but when the time comes that they get to face a real money situation, possibility is that they may lose their confidence, which results to poor decision-making and strategy-hopping, wherein they continually go from one plan to another. Loss of profits can't be avoided in this scenario.
trading money forex
There has always been a traditional method of buying and selling currencies. These are still now available in some exotic Eastern and Middle Eastern markets where the money changer is the part of the activity in that market. Forex trading is just a new spin to this traditional activity and not limited to the small markets. Money changers mainly exchanged currencies which allowed local customers to exchange the currencies they had for the local currency in use in that particular market to enable them to make purchases. Forex trading has taken this to a much higher level and it allows banks and other institutions to exchange currencies depending on the requirement of each of these from various big companies and even governments.
Taking advantage of this forex market
Eight Major currencies are traded in conventional forex trading. The market does constantly fluctuate on a daily basis and the trained forex trader will take advantage of the fluctuations to profit from it. The principle is the same as stock markets; buy low and sell high. So, like the stock market, you also need to have a complete knowledge of the market before you venture into it. There are software programs available which will allow you to do demo trades until you are completely familiar with the way the markets behave. There are also pre-programmed trading software programs like Robot which will automatically make the trades for you. All of these can be of possible benefit you and some traders claim to make an almost daily profit, throughout the year.
What is the profit potential?
Some exceptional traders, who have been in the market for a very long time, claim to make profits of anywhere between 40 percent and 300 percent on a month to month basis! You should NOT expect to make anything like this as a novice forex trader, and in fact it is all too easy to LOSE money. The key to success is to judge the market correctly, work hard with dedication, and persevere. In time, you too can claim your share of the profits from forex trading. There are certainly risks involved, and your profit goal when starting out should be "Don't Lose Money".
Forex Trading, The Best Chance Of Trading Success
Who is a forex trader?
The amount of currencies that are exchanged every day is about two billion dollars, and almost everyone with an inclination to trade has got into it. The individual private traders trading in the forex trading market are linked up to forex brokers who in turn are linked up to MNC's and big banks from all over the world. If you want to become a forex trader and indulge in forex trading you would have to look for an authorized forex broker. These brokers are generally authorized by statutory bodies in their country of origin and are subject to the laws in that particular country.
Forex Trading Made Easy
The forex market is a twenty-four hour per day, seven day a week, three-hundred and sixty-five days a year foreign currency exchange market that's truly massive --to the tune over two Trillion dollars in currencies traded on a daily basis. Using automated forex trading, to help you time this market correctly can help you make money fast at home.
Because we simply aren't able to do what it takes, automated forex trading software programs have been created. Their purpose is to enable a dedicated and educated forex trader to get a boost upwards on the trading decision cycle. It literally can help make you money by trading currency in the forex market. Forex activities can be very lucrative, but they also carry very big risks.
forex, forex, forex, forex,
The streets are strewn with the bodies of people who thought they could control the forex market. But because they were human, and unable to literally sit in front of their computer every single moment of every single day, they never came close to fulfilling the dream of making thousands of dollars daily on the forex. Fortunately, something like a forex trading software can do that for you. It will do just about all of the work. Your end is that you need to check in on it for a short while each day.
Friday, August 14, 2009
Learning to Trade Stocks
Learning to trade stocks requires some skill but it also requires you to shed some of your ingrained, inbred emotions. It's these very emotions that caused me to sell stocks too early in by beginning days of trading. I have overcome these emotions now and I have a set of rules that I follow religiously. That doesn't mean that I can't change the rules of my system but I have to give myself a good reason to do so. If I don't change my system than I stick to them. That is how I keep emotions out of the equation.
The most important way to help yourself when learning to trade stocks is to come up with your own system and practice. But practicing with real money can be costly. Some people refer to this as your tuition but what if you could avoid putting real money on the line and still get the practice you need?
A way to do that is by a concept known as paper trading. Now, there are critics of paper trading that state that because you are not putting real money on the line you will not have the same kinds of emotions that you would had you put your hard earned cash in. They also state that you will not get the same kind of fills that you would when you trade for real. There is some truth to these statements but it shouldn't stop you from pursuing paper trading because there are ways to reduce the aspects of paper trading that are criticized.
To counter the first item, paper trading is still experience. Yes, the emotions are not the same but what you are really doing is trying to get a feel for whether your system is working or going to work. The second item's counterpoint is if you take the midpoint of the bid and ask at any given time of the day or at the close, you would likely get filled at those levels had you traded real money. That's because it falls within the range of the bid/ask spread. I have used this technique when trading for real and with the exception of super fast moving stocks, I almost always got filled.
I think if you want to go about learning to trade stocks you need a system and you need to be able to practice trading. You want to be able to do both of these without putting up a whole lot of capital (none if you can get away with it). One system that I have found that is indispensible and reliable is the CANSLIM method. This method has been helping people learning how to trade stocks to profit.
Forex Trading Education - 5 Key Points That Will Make You Successful When 95% of Traders Lose
The first point to keep firmly in mind is you don't get success without learning skills and the vendors who tell that you can make a fortune without making any effort are lying. If Forex trading were that easy 95% of traders wouldn't lose.
You need to learn the basics and then follow the key points below and if you do, you can enjoy big Forex profits
1. You only need a Simple System
If you make a system to complicated it will have too many elements to break so keep it very simple just a few rules or parameters are all you need, to get a system which can be successful in the face of brutal market conditions.
2. Don't Over Leverage and Pay attention to Money Management
Your broker will give you a minimum of 200:1 leverage but just because you have access to it doesn't mean you should use it 10:1 is plenty for most traders. Over leveraging of accounts wipes out more accounts than any other single reason. Money management is the key to success, always place a stop and never run a loss, if you don't have strong, disciplined money management in place you will never win long term at Forex trading.
3. Run Profits and Understand Volatility
Most traders can't run profits, they try to restrict risk so much, they actually create it. They always move stops to close and get stopped out to soon and never catch the big trends, don't make this mistake.
4. Be Patient
Most traders think the more they trade the more gains they will make and they over trade. The savvy trader knows that to win at Forex trading, you should only trade high odds set ups. Many traders make triple digit profits, trading just a few times a month and you can too.
5. Forex Trading Success Depends on You!
You need confidence and discipline to win at Forex trading and you need to keep your emotions out of trading, most traders can't do this and that's why they lose. They can't accept their not perfect and their egos get hurt when they lose and they deviate from their trading plan and lose.
Forex trading success is open to all and it's not actually the market that beats the trader it's actually the trader who beats himself. Learn the key points above and they can lead you to Forex trading success.
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
what is the forex broker
A forex broker is the mediator between the retail and wholesale forex markets The wholesale market is comprised of banks and similar large institutions, and the retail market, of course, includes individual traders who are seeking to acquire speculative gains. Forex brokers are not traders themselves, but occasionally they will have their own staff trading the market on their behalf.
Forex brokers allow retail traders to interact with the markets, and are compensated for their services through the bid-ask spread which is the difference between the price a trader must accept to sell (bid), and the price he must pay to buy(ask) a currency. Since forex traders suffer losses often, brokers make the utmost effort to protect themselves. First, they net out the positions of their clients with entries on the opposite side. Since the vast majority of forex traders lose money, by entering the opposite order they usually make profits. And they also protect themselves by activating margin calls in case that a trader's account value falls below a threshold level (margin requirement).
At the inception of the forex brokerage business, retail trading was largely unregulated as authorities did not possess the expertise and background for effective oversight. Today, however, numerous regulatory bodies which include the CFTC in the U.S., the BaFin in Germany, and the FSA in the U.K. ensure a healthy, legal and competitive environment by maintaining strict regulation of the business. As such, one of the most important considerations for a beginning forex trader is guaranteeing that the broker is regulated by the relevant national authority.
In general, today's laws and regulations do not protect forex traders in the same way that stock traders are protected. Accounts opened with online stock brokers are usually protected against broker insolvency by up to $100000, and yet there is no equivalent protection for forex traders. UK-based brokers are required to segregate client assets from the firm's own capital, and so, creditors cannot press claims against forex traders if an FSA regulated broker goes bankrupt.
Forex trading is a great, profitable career for the committed individual. And a carefully scrutinized, patiently selected broker can be an excellent partner for a successful forex trader. Ultimately, finding the right broker is not just about screening forex broker lists, but improving our own discipline, and analytical skills in determining what we want from trading. Set your goals right, and you can reach them in due time. Vacillate in defining your aims, and success will likewise hesitate to come your path.
Learn the Simple Forex Market
The forex market is surely not a game for a fresher in this field and they need to improve their skills before getting their hands wet. The fact is that many individuals who make money online keep losing money in the forex market and very few are earning millions annually. This major difference is caused by two main reasons, namely, forex trading skills and the trading system being used.
Forex trading gives a whole new option to the beginners to succeed financially. To learn Forex market and list Forex trading into one of your financial plans is a must. When an investor adapts the right trading skills, the limit to earn profits is left far behind. In other words there is no such limit defined to earn profits if the trading skills are absolutely apt. There are many trading systems that provide you with the facility of making money online. But what is required by us is to identify and understand that which one will suit the best to our requirement.
1. Note the values of the currencies
2. Know the trend ending time
3. Affect of current economy
4. Use of long term trading strategies
To succeed at currency trading, one needs to learn the right forex trading strategy which can be possible if and only if the traders follow these winning tips and to move ahead and reap huge benefits or profits.
Automated Forex Trading System
This Forex robot uses a cool new technology known as Correlated Time and PriceAnalysis (RCTPA). What this does is helps the robot make trades in the presentby quickly calculating years of similar looking market conditions in the past.The Forex market like any other will follow specific patterns and Mega Droidwill use years of back testing to profit from those patterns.
Now the hallmark of Forex Mega Droid and why it is creating such hype is thefact that the program is the first Forex robot to have artificial intelligence(AI). What this means is instead of simply taking the same trades over and over,if one trade is a loser the robot will learn from the experience. It will then factor in why that trade was a loser and use that valuable information for latertrades. This Automated Forex Robot is incredibly valuable because the problem with mostForex robots is they stop working after a certain amount of time. ForexMegaDroid learns from it's mistakes and is constantly adapting to marketconditions. Forex MegaDroid Results Fore complete review and listed benefits visit http://www.sneakymoneysystem.com This Forex MegaDroid review would not be complete without posting some initialresults from our testing of the product. Now keep in mind this product is stillvery new, so these numbers COULD change in the future. The initial results havebeen pretty staggering. Forex MegaDroid has shown a 95-96% win percentage ontrades and tripled one of our accounts. The best part is the robot was very good at limiting losses by not riding costlydrawdowns. A high win percentage with minimal losses are the signs of anEXCELLENT automated software. Before jumping in I recommend learning a little more about the program. Butthere is an awful lot to be excited about with this one. Fore complete review and listed benefits visit http://www.sneakymoneysystem.com
Can You Make Money Online Trading Forex?
Becoming a successful Forex trader basically comes down to four things:
1) Learning about the markets and your appitite for risk
How the markets work, what moves them, etc is a simple matter as these markets are not that complicated. Determining how well you are suited to trading is a difficult process however. Finding out how you react to stress and perform when real money is on the line can be a life long process
2) Finding and learning a system that fits your personality and life style
There are as many different systems as there are traders, many have been proven over time, so really the only question is which one suits me.I know many will dispute this point, however it really is not as complicated as some try to make it. Most of those making it hard are really just trying to sell you something. There are many free systems that once learned and traded can make you wealthy
3) Testing that system until you have an edge.
Testing is the heart of becoming a good trader. Most people don't do this. If you test something until you can prove and edge, no matter how small it may seem, you just need to trade it over and over to make money.
4) Trading that system exactly how you tested it, until you are wealthy.
Many traders are always looking for that magic system that will make money fast. The secret to wealth is to stick to the system you have tested and proved and do it until you acumulate wealth. Not chase the latest trading software or system.
When you are ready to trade this market, keep these four simple steps in mind and then do not let anything stand in your way of becoming the trader you want to be.
Online Forex Resources Are Abundant
Using forex trading strategies that 99% of traders use will not make you successful. You will need arare, innovative and original tradingstrategies related to how the market behave in order to become more successful in the forex trading business than you have ever dreamed of.
After understanding the basics of how the forex market works, you should start learning more in depth detail of how to trade and earn a huge profit. Aside from the traditional means of learning the forex market, there are a lot of forex books that can help in the process as well.
Forex Market
While some markets have the luxury of industry standard authoritative sources, the forex market is fortunate to have many forex resources at the disposal of investors large and small. To really get a solid foundation to make logical, profitable forex buys, you need to build your house on solid granite. When it comes to initiating your way to learn forex trading system, the best way is to know about what exactly forex trading is all about and who are the actual players in this field.
If one considers the weight and scope of the forex exchange and the volume of information one might need to conduct even the most simple of transactions, then it might be a good idea have a comprehensive understanding of the numerous forex resources available to the average and large investor.
Forex Resources
Online forex resources are abundant and can range from entire forex platforms to articles that offer advice and information. While some might prefer the gut feeling and instinctual business acumen acquired on Wall Street, forex resources are essential for any, successful or unsuccessful, forex transaction. Forex resources must be culled from newspapers, local and national, market reports, and charts and graphs, along with the transactions of other investors considering their own forex resources.
In the end, forex resources can be overwhelming and it pays, in large profits, for the forex investor to consider wise and well the extent of the forex resources he or she may wish to consider. When it comes to learning forex trading the fast andeffective manner, you need to learn it via obtaining goodknowledge and adequate skills to read all the importantforeign exchange quotes. This is a great way to learn forex. However, the sole purpose of obtaining a demo forex trading account is to train yourself in this field perfectly.
Forex Trading For Beginners - 10 Essential Tips For Forex Trading Success
Here are your ten tips and there in no particular order of importance, there all important!
1. Don't Use a cheap Forex Robot or Expert Advisor
If you think you are going to get rich by paying out two hundred dollars or less for a cheap software package think again you won't, all these systems lose money. If Forex trading were as simple as paying a few hundred dollars for a lifelong income, 95% of traders wouldn't lose money.
2. Accept Responsibility
Leading on from the above point, it should be pretty obvious that you need to accept responsibility for your actions, learn skills and get a decent Forex education.
3. Work Smart Not Hard
You don't need to work hard just get the right Forex information and that should only take you a couple of weeks at most and your all set.
4. Keep Your Strategy Simple
Simple trading strategies work best as they are more robust than complex ones, with fewer elements to break, so keep your system simple.
5. Use Technical analysis
This is simply the most time efficient way to trade and all you need to do is learn the right chart formations, to spot profitable chart set ups and that's a learned skill.
6. Be Patient
Don't trade to often, once or twice a month is enough to make big gains and is the best way to trade, as you will be focusing on the high odds trades which offer the biggest profits.
7. Use tight Money Management
You are going to get losses, so make sure you keep them small and always place a stop before you start to trade, so you are not tempted to run losses and hope they turn around - most times they don't!
8. Use Sensible Leverage
You can get 200: 1 leverage with any Forex broker online but this is far too much and you will eventually destroy your account. 10- 20:1 is plenty for most traders.
9. Learn Discipline
You will here this word a lot and it's the key to Forex trading success. You must follow your system with discipline and keep your losses small. If you can't follow your system with discipline you don't have one!
10. Be Realistic
Don't be afraid to make mistakes or take losses, all traders do and you will too. Forget perfection and focus on making money; if you can make 50 - 100% in your first year of trading you are up there with the best and can be very proud of yourself.
These are 10 very simple tips for novice Forex traders and if you follow them you could be on the road to Forex trading success and a great second or even life changing income.