4x Trading Software At Its Best: 4x Trading Was Never So Easy - 4x Software You Must Have

The Forex MegaDroid has been developed by John Grace and Albert Perrie. Both are forex traders with 38 years 4x trading experience between them. As close friends, over time they firmed up their thoughts about developing their own 4x trading software robot.Sadly the Forex MegaDroid has a horrid sales page like all the others do - which initially was a big turn off for me. It's exactly the look and feel you'd expect from a used car salesman with sleazy tactics. It is so tacky that I expected to be reporting here that their 4x software product is a disgrace. But during my research of them, I was forced to reconsider my first impressions. The proven, ongoing live testing results confirm this.In all of the live-account testing I have seen, there is no question that it performs exceptionally well. They claim better than a 95% successful trade rate - which I doubted very much - but it's true. I have seen the proof many times.Visit Forex Robots Reviewed by clicking the link below to see links to live 4x trading accounts of this 4x software in action.This guy bought his MegaDroid, installed it easily, and opened live forex trading accounts with 3 different brokers. In each account he put $3,000. From each account ID, he gave his MegaDroid the data feed from each broker. The robot can then execute trades on his accounts.He set his limits of risk he was happy with per the training. And then he sat and watched. He is a novice trader. He has just started out. He did nothing more than install it, set it on the default risk levels. Then he just watched and let it do its thing.At the time of writing that review (May 14, 2009) - his 3 different broker accounts (using the one copy of MegaDroid) had made 37 trades.Of the 37 trades, 36 made a profit - only 1 trade lost money - $7.36. For the 24 days trading till just then (on fully automatic) - his net profit is $1,067.15.I am impressed by that. As of May 14, 2009 that's 97.3% profitable trades.Also it is important to note the $/trade profit versus the $/trade loss. The 36 profitable trades were for an average of $29.85 profit each trade. As said, the 1 losing trade was for $7.36.So, that's 36:1 profit to lose ratio on the number of trades. And a 4:1 ratio on the size of profits compared to losses.My view is that even if a trader was expert and smart enough to do what the MegaDroid has demonstrated here, no human could concentrate long enough and consistently enough to match the performance.Still not impressed? Then look at other live 4x trading account on the website Forex Robots Reviewed (link below).MegaDroid $10,000 opening balance January 1, 2009 LIVEAs of May 14, 2009 it has now got a balance of $78,138.70. 103 trades - 101 trades made a profit. Look at the profit graph - sorry you have to visit the web page to get the link to the live 4x trading account.Through the years of Forex trading John and Albert did realize that most Forex robot systems were designed and developed with only a single forex market condition in mind.While this maybe true, I don't really care - I just want it to make money reliably and safely. Every Forex trader does know that the forex market changes all the time. It is clear from real proof that the MegaDroid Forex Trading Robot has a system built into it that embraces this change.The vendors claim this system has been successfully created to perform at 95.82% accuracy. What I have witnessed from real traders doing real trading it performs better than that. The novice is seeing 97.3%, and the professional is seeing just slightly better than 98%.But don't rush off an buy Megadroid just yet. There are some important facts you need to know - so visit Forex Robots Reviewed to find out all about it.You'll see the link below. Click it now if you want to make some serious money.

Successful Forex Rading System

Forex trading system is the subsystem of the forex trading plan which governs when and at which price you open and close your trades. A trading system works on the signals given by technical analysis and/or fundamental analysis. The signals are taken to see if the trader should buy or sell a specific currency pair or must close the open position(s). Any currency trading system prevents information overload by filtering out the universe of technical and/or fundamental signals in such a way that only the most reliable (successful in the past) signals or signal combinations are acted upon.There are two kinds of trading systems - the discretionary and the mechanical. Discretionary trading systems expect the trader to use his or her own judgement to ascertain the importance of each of the technical or fundamental signals (whose number is potentially infinite) that he or she gets. Mechanical trading systems operate on a fixed number of technical or fundamental signals without the participation of the trader. Discretionary trading systems require the perpetual application of creativity (flexibility of approach) from the trader in the understanding of the changing market conditions. Mechanical trading systems require the creativity from the trader only in the forex system development phase.Discretionary forex trading systems are best employed by professional forex traders with a lot of experience (internalized practical market knowledge) against which they can determine the validity of any signal that they receive. These traders usually remember a large number of various signal patterns from the past (just like the master chessmen) that they can compare to the current market conditions, to make their analysis more objective. In essence, they use themselves (i.e. their brain) as their trading system - often very successfully - because human mind has the best pattern recognition power on the planet.Starting currency traders are advised to begin by following professionally created mechanical forex trading systems. Most of these systems are sold-out in the form of the forex signals that are usually developed by experienced traders who have found a way to systemize their knowledge of the markets into a working strategy. At the same time, the beginning traders can work on building their own knowledge base of the forex market through the quality forex books, educational courses, bank reports and newswires on this subject -so that they can too, with time, create mechanical trading systems from their own insights and intuitions (using the forex charting packages which allow to do this).Beginning without a proven mechanical forex trading system (that has positive mathematical expectation) drastically dilutes the chances of maintaining the capital. This is because any intuition or a hunch that the traders experience as a result of some newly gained knowledge of the forex market is likely to be overridden by one of the two emotional derivatives of their life-long programming towards the money - the greed and the fear. In other words, without exact adherence to an existing mechanical trading system the beginning trader will eventually succumb to his or her emotions. As a matter of fact, the only way the traders can acquire discipline in the early phases of their trading careers is by tight following the signals generated by a proven mechanical forex trading system.Note: Neural Network Packages (e.g. NeuroShell) emulate the process of human learning and can be used to accumualte the knowledge of the past technical and/or fundamental signal patterns (just like the mind of professional forex traders does) for the purpose of the future currency price forecasting.Quote: "A mechanical approach to the markets can be successful and this is backed up by the fact that approximately 80% of the $30 billion in the managed futures industry is traded by exact systematic methods", from the "The Ultimate Trading Guide" by John R. Hill, George Pruitt, and Lundy Hill.2.2. Components of a Forex Trading System.A regular forex trading system consists of two subsystems - the entry system and the exit system. These systems can operate on a different or the same set of inputs. The inputs can be technical or fundamental signals.A system consists of a number of rules which interpret the signals that it receives. The entry system evaluates the signals to determine if and at which level the positions should be opened. The exit system evaluates the signals to determine if and at which level the open positions should be closed.The propose of an entry system is to find market points which allow to open positions with high potential reward and low potential risk (high reward-to-risk ratio). The risk is defined as the pip distance from the entry price to the next support or resistance level lying opposite to the entry direction (above entry for sell and below entry for buy). The reward is defined as the pip distance from the entry price to the next support or resistance level lying in the direction of the entry (above entry for buy and below entry for sell). It is generally advised that the traders accept only the trades with the reward-to-risk ratio of over 2 (e.g. risk=60 pips, reward=130 pips). All the same, depending on the accuracy of a trading system (i.e. the percentage of the winning trades of all the past trades) this requirement might be shifted to a lower or a higher value without sacrificing the profitability of the system. This is because the true measure of the long term profitability of a forex trading system is neither the average per-trade reward-to-risk ratio nor the accuracy of the system but the combination of these two measures which is calculated as the mathematical expectation of a trading system. In the absence of the accuracy measure of a trading system (as is the case with some discretionary trading systems) - the trader ought strive to find entries with the greatest possible reward-to-risk ratio.Note: Elliott wave analysis allows to find entries with extremely high reward-to-risk ratios (e.g. just check some of reports on MTPredictor's site). It is worth noting that MTPredictor automatically calculates the reward-to-risk ratios and helps to find optimum entry points based on these ratios. Some Elliot wave software developers (e.g. Advanced Get) also supply their subscribers with detailed Elliott wave trading plans.The aim of an exit system is to protect the capital base and the unrealized profits. The capital base is shielded by ensuring that the trades are exited with a fixed loss when the reasons for holding them are no longer valid. This is done by triggering a stop-loss order on your forex brokerage account when the price crosses the level which defined your risk at the entry. If you are a discretionary trader, forcing yourself to place the slop-loss on each trade and to stick to it no matter what will make you very selective about your entries - which ought increase your profitability. The unrealized profits are protected either by a take-profit order which is triggered on your brokerage account when the price reaches the level which defined your profit at the entry or with the help of the trailing stop-loss which gradually locks in more profits as the price moves in your favour. In fact, the trailing stop-loss exit can be more suitable than the fixed take-profit exit if you wish to profit from the extending "character" of some impulse waves. In such a event the trailing stop-loss can be placed just a few pips opposite to the trendline which defines impulse wave. There is one more type of exit which can be used to protect the trader from missing trading opportunities - the time exit. A time exit is triggered if a trade hasn't reached either its stop-loss or take-profit level in the specified period of time. Exiting such trades reduces the chances that the capital will be tied up when better opportunities appear on the other currency pairs.Note: Most forex newswires (e.g. Marketnews) are a great source of real-time information on the location of the major support and resistance levels and clusters of large orders that are watched by professional forex traders and which can be used to manually update the position of your trailing stop-loss.2.3. Development of a Currency Trading System.Making a mechanical forex trading system involves a number of steps: 1) Selecting the inputs for the trading system - technical analysis or fundamental analysis tools which will generate the signals for the system; 2) Developing the rule-set which will operate on these signals; 3) Optimizing the parameters of the analysis tools used to produce the signals; 4) Backtesting and forwardtesting the system over historical price data. Each of these steps is covered in more detail below:2.3.1. Selecting the Inputs for the Trading SystemIt is important to base your selection of inputs to the system on a sensible premise about the way the currency markets operate. As an example, you can use 200-day moving average to determine if the market is in a long-term up or down trend because a large proportion of professional forex traders use this technical tool to measure market trendiness. It is also better to combine technical analysis tools of different type and scale because this increases the chances of finding high-probability entry points (those that are likely to be followed by sharp currency price moves in your favour), which should, in turn, contribute to the overall system accuracy.If you use technical tools only on the higher time-frame charts like the daily or the weekly charts this will increase the duration of the trades and the time periods out of the market - because the signals will take longer to form. Either of these outcomes can have detrimental impact on the trader and investor morale during the inevitable losing streaks as is shown by our forex trading simulator (Please note: The size of this page is 0,6 Mbs and it requires that you have Flash installed and Javascript enabled in your browser). which can last longer than they are naturally prepared to wait. This makes it important to focus on lower time-frame charts (e.g. hourly charts) for signal generation which will lead to shorter trade durations and, consequently, to quicker recoveries from the drawdowns. Shorter trade durations can also help to the trader to defeat the temptation to overtrade because he or she can expect to see the next entry signal in the next couple of days - not in the next couple of weeks.Quote: "Your freedom to choose your time-frame is too valuable to lose. Investors and margined speculators, on the other hand, can choose their own time-frames. This is one of their positional advantages, to use a favourite notion of Larry Hite* , one of the founders of Mint Investment Corp* - one of the largest of the futures fund operators. Investors and speculators can choose. Obviously it makes sense to choose time frames which match any natural rhythms that can be discerned in the currency markets." John Percival in his book "The Way of the Dollar".Note: If you are using the Elliott Wave analysis your average holding period will depend on the degree of the impulse or corrective waves that you are trading.Choosing which fundamental factors are best for your forex trading system (e.g. as inputs to your neural network) can be very hard because the effect of various economic indicators on the currency prices changes with time. In other words, the strength of correlation between the price of a currency pair and the fundamental factors relevant to it is not fixed (even with interest rate differentials). In contrast, the relationship between the price patterns (especially the classical price patterns) and trader psychology (the driving force behind most important price moves) remains fairly stable over the years. This is the reason why the forex traders are encouraged to dedicate most of their efforts to building trading systems around the technical analysis.Another all-important question is the time horizon of the prediction that the trader is trying to make with his system. Better not to try to forecast currency prices too far into the future. This is because the number and the complexity of interaction of various technical and fundamental factors rises geometrically with each trading day. It is, therefore, best to "leave" this task to high-end investment banks and houses which alone have the capacity to perform the necessary calculations inherent in longer-term currency course forecasting. It is more practical for the typical currency trader to concentrate on capturing the so-called "knee-jerk" market reactions driven by crowd emotionalism through the analysis of the current technical or fundamental conditions.Quote: "Rule 5: Be prepared for anything don't try to predict what will happen or when. Investing is a skill, not a science. The Zen swordsman dicsniplines body and mind to counter any blow spontaneously; he does not anticipate the moves of an opponent, for that impedes his ability to react. Likewise, professional investors know they cannot control the real estate or stock market, let alone the global economy. Instead, they train themselves to be financially intelligent, to think confidently and creatively when opportunities or problems arise." one of the The Seven Rules of Investing given in Robert Kiyosaki's book "You Can Choose to Be Rich".You should also try not to include too many indicators (over 12) in your forex trading system. This is because probability that the system will perform like it did in the past diminishes as you add more indicators to your system. As a rule, the larger the number of indicators in your system the longer the period of historical currency price data you need to backtest the system on.Note: There is no necessity to learn all the available indicators and technical analysis methods before you can start creating your own robust trading systems. It is usually enough to master just a few "basic" technical indicators and formations to start combining them to identify high probability entry and exit points. The fundamental and technical reports issues by the investment banks are one of the best sources of information on which technical and/or fundamental signals are watched by the professional trading community that you can include in your forex trading system. In the long run it is best to stick to a sound forex trading strategy, that has high probability of being profitable in the long-run, than to dissipate your capital among a variety of "promising" methods.2.3.2. Developing the Rule-Set which will Operate on the SignalsYou can create these rules based on your observation of how the prices move in relation to various technical and fundamental indicators. For example, you might notice that currency prices tend to resume trending behaviour after they correct toward and touch 200-day moving average. You can use this observance to formulate a rule which will enter the markets when the prices bounce off from the 200-day moving average. You could also notice that the prices tend to stop trending when they touch the outer daily Bollinger bands. You can use this information to create a rule which will exit the trades once the prices penetrate the outer daily Bollinger Band. Because making rule-sets for mechanical trading systems forces you to quantify your insights about the market this practice aids to clarify them.The rule-set of a forex trading system is in essence the clarified version of the weighing algorithms that you naturally create in your mind as you learn the technical and fundamental analysis and observe the price action. I say "weighing" because most of the technical rules are transcribed in your mind as fuzzy patterns (e.g. "The longer the shadows of a doji the more likely the reversal" or "The steeper the trendline - the more bullish or bearish the market sentiment."). When you make the trading system, you transfer your knowledge to the computer in the form that can be understood by it. Admittedly, the quality of the computerized model very often will fall short of the actual mental model that you keep in your head. Nevertheless, the real advantage of the "mechanicizing" your market knowledge is the power to objectively determine the validity of your trading ideas by the process of the backtesting. It should be noted that the closest the computers approach to simulating the complexity of human comprehension of the market patterns is in the neural network packages.Neural network packages can be especially effective if you wish to model your way of weighing the strength of support or resistance levels. For example, if you believe that fibonacci retracements are more reliable entry points if they are confirmed by reversal candlestick patterns and/or RSI divergence you can "ask" a neural network to search for past occurrences of this pattern combination and determine the actual numeric weight that should be placed on each of these technical signals for the entry or exit to occur. This process is very advantageous because it allows the computer to extend your natural pattern recognition ability by perfecting (or objectifying) the weights associated with each technical input/signal. This way you can objectively measure the strength or the beauty of the technical setups that you encounter in your trading (e.g. the resultant model might require the position to be opened if the total sum of signal weighs is bigger than 0,5 where a reversal candlestick signal is "worth" 0,15, fibonacci retracement is "worth" 0,3 and the RSI divergence is "worth" 0,45). In essence, your forex trading system is the description of how beautiful your trading setups should be, where "beauty" is defined as the convergence of confirming signals from different type and/or scale technical analysis tools. Advanced users of the neural networks can go even further by tying the position size (within the maximum percentage value set by their money management system) to the strength or the beauty of the technical setup. If done decently this practice will allow them to make the most of the best trading opportunities while simultaneously reducing the exposure on the less promising setups.

How to develop a profitable forex trading stratey

Before you plunge into one of the most liquid, unpredictable and profitable markets in the world, there are some things that you should know about before putting your money in the hands of a forex broker. When money is involved, there are a lot of things you should consider, and these are the key to developing the best Forex strategy, for you to start making a profit. For instance, there is a great deal of money management that must be put in place before you run off with a lot of hope in your pocket. Hope is not going to pay the bills. Your money is and you need to know when and how much of your money you are going to use.Always set yourself some realistic targets and limits to ensure that you do not spend too much money. Also, do not fall prey to the gambling endemic that is afflicting many Forex traders - this means they simply cannot stop trading no matter how much they loose and they often make irrational decisions in order to 'win' back the money that they have lost. Set yourself some parameters and stick to them, you will regret the fact that you account has run dry and you start to owe the brokerage a sum of money. Also, always have some risk capital on hand so that when things do go wrong, you will be able to bail yourself out. The total sum of your investment and risk capital should be an amount that you are able to afford.Nobody should go into trading with their life savings in tow. The capital you put into the commodities market should be capital you can spend and if you do lose, will not have an adverse affect on your life style. That said, Forex trading is all about watching market patterns and market psychology. Unlike normal and traditional commodities trading, many people would say that the Forex market falls into a pattern when it comes to either a crisis or an upheaval within currencies. Issues like inflation, political violence and economic decisions can adversely affect the performance of the currency pair you have chosen. But there is always a pattern and this pattern is the structure of many trading strategies of experienced investors. For example, you must learn that there are many 'safe' currencies in the market that investors flock to when there is wind of a calamity in global economies. This is just one aspect.Market psychology is ruled by major decisions my collective moves in the market. Because of the fact that huge multicontinental banks are the biggest driving forces within the FX market, they have pre planned moves when situations come up. Your job as an investor is to read the signs and react accordingly. The good thing about Forex is that is a very liquid market, so you can pull out any time you want - or on the flip side can invest in a click of a mouse. With these in mind when investing

AUTO FOREX TRADING SYSTEM

If you wish to make most of the forex trading opportunities, then auto forex system trading is something which could really assist you in this concern. Just select the best trading system and earn lots of money.When it comes to earn lots of money with forex trading in an easiest manner, it is highly recommended to go for auto forex system trading. Now, you must be wondering why it is so. Well, before taking into the account of these systems, it is essential for you to consider their worth first. Basically, forex trade market works for twenty four hours a day. It means that opportunities of earning money can come at anytime. But, is it possible for you to monitor all these trade activities for the whole day? Well, the answer will definitely be no! Now, here comes the requirement of these auto forex system trading.Such systems can assist you as a professional broker and that too without charging any monthly wages. Now, let us consider the functioning of these trading systems. Basically, these systems work upon the specific software which acts according to the growth or fall of the currency. It means that the decisions taken by auto trading system are the assurance of earning a lot of money.In addition, these systems do not require you to sit in front of them to monitor their activities. They work for you throughout the whole day and as soon as any earning opportunity arrives, you are sure to grab that instantly. Although these systems are quite trendiest these days, but it doesn't mean that you should trust them blindly. As forex trading is a risky game and even a single mistake of yours could put you into halt. That's why it would be a prudent decision to go for a demo session of these systems.In addition, make sure the system that you are going to deal with is tested under the practical conditions of forex market. You can also search over the Internet to find out the most appropriate auto forex system trading software for you. It doesn't matter which software you are using in the forex trading, the only thing which matters is your strategy to make the most out of it. Therefore, select the software that works according to your strategies.

Growing Popularity of Forex Trading

Today it is very hard to ignore the fact that forex market is the world's biggest financial market. Over the past few years, it has become the most popular market with trades amounting to more than USD 3 trillion every day. Generally referred as currency trading market, it always involves the combination of two currencies. For example- either you can buy Euro or sell US dollars, or you can buy and sale any other combination of globally accepted currencies.In recent times, fx trading has gained huge popularity and turned out to be a very profitable money making option. If we look at the present scenario, it can be recognized as one of the most potentially rewarding types of investments available in the global market. Though this form of trading involves great risks but the potential to earn profits are enormous relative to initial capital investments. The major reason of growing recognition is its very low dealing costs, high leverage margin, 24 hours trading a day and high liquidity market. For example, with a $5000 account, you can make about $5000 per month. Obviously it decidedly depends on the manner that you trade and the strategy you follow but good and experienced traders can double their money every month.The key positive sign of fx currency trading that can help you consider it as a money-making affair can be its size. Its wide yet easily accessible size prevents almost all attempts by others to influence the market for their own gain. Consequently, when you invest in foreign currency market, you can be certain that the deal you are making has the same opportunity for profit as other investors do throughout the world.So, if you are looking to get involve in this type of currency trading, it is always better to enjoy trading with the help of a forex broker. A forex broker can be the key person who can guide you to earn more profits from market, as a result it is always better to carefully select a right forex broker for right deal. Apart from all this, the next major fact about this form of currency trading is- in this form of trading there is no centralized location of foreign currency trading. With the help of various online platforms you can trade currency from any parts of the world. With the help of internet connection and active forex trading account you can easily trade in foreign currencies.Today it can be considered as one of the few trading markets in the world that always provides you with opportunities to trade because of currencies strengthening or weakening. The supply and demand are the factors that determine the price in any market. Now when there are too many buyers and sellers, similar to the current situation in forex market, the price volatility can be much higher, market may be more dynamic and chances to make money can be even more. The price may go up and down more frequently and this dynamic nature helps in making decent money. Consequently, if you are looking to choose Forex as your business, its better you do not get worried about competition but must make sure you develop a proper strategy to earn money and enjoy good success in fx trading.

best forex site

When selecting a Forex trading firm, it's crucial to choose a firm you can trust. FXDD is a leading online Foreign Exchange firm you can depend on to manage all your Forex trading needs with professional expertise and confidence. FXDD's outstanding customer service, technical support, dealing practices and desk support represent the best practice in the business.


This retail platform offers a small download size, extensive charting capabilities and trailing stops, a powerful tool for account management

MTXTreme is the latest product offering from FXDD, and is designed specifically to offer the best multi-bank pricing with the reliability and functionality of the MetaTrader trading platform.

Our proprietary retail platform offers streamlined trading, charting, as well as a host of unique features such as margin monitor, advanced reporting, and multiple account capabilities.

This provides FXDD clients a fully automated trading system that executes signals and strategies from third party signal providers in an FXDD trading account.

Our institutional platform provides upwards of $100 million in liquidity for institutional or private clients looking for fast, reliable execution of large, block trades (5 million, 10 million and over).

Singapore Consumer Prices Fall For Fifth Consecutive Month

Singapore’s consumer prices dropped for a fifth consecutive month, reflecting lower costs of housing, recreation as well as transport and communication, an official report showed Wednesday.

The Department of Statistics said consumer prices dropped 0.3% year-on-year in August, slower than a 0.5% fall seen in the preceding two months. The rate came in less than economists’ forecast for a 0.4% decline.

Housing costs fell 1.6% on an annual basis, due to lower electricity and gas tariffs and cheaper liquefied petroleum gas. Transport and communication costs slipped 0.4%, mainly due to cheaper petrol prices. Recreation costs were down 1.4%.

Meanwhile, health care prices climbed 2%, while food as well as clothing & footwear prices were up 0.9% and 1.7%, respectively.

Month-on-month, consumer prices rose 0.4%, but the pace was slower than the 1.1% in July. The increase was mainly due to higher costs of transport and communication, clothing and footwear, as also housing and stationery items.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, consumer prices climbed 0.4% in August, faster than the 0.3% in the preceding month. Excluding accommodation costs, consumer prices were down 0.9% year-on-year in August, but rose 0.5% compared to the previous month.

For the first eight months of the year, consumer prices were higher by 0.5% from the same period last year.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore in a report on September 2 said consumer prices could be flat this year compared to its earlier forecast for a 1.5% drop. The authority expects a slower pace of contraction for the economy.

The MAS expects the economy to decline 3.6% this year, slower than a 6.5% fall predicted in its June survey and compares with the 4% to 6% decline expected by the government for the year. For the next year, the agency forecasts the growth to be 4.5%, higher than the 4.2% rise expected in the June survey.

Meanwhile, the Asian Development Bank in a report Tuesday said developing Asian economies were poised to lead the global economic recovery, proving to be more resilient than initially thought. Moreover, the bank also raised its growth forecast for the year for the region. The lender expects a V-shaped rebound for the regional economy.

The latest update of Asian Development Outlook 2009 projects developing Asian economies, which excludes Japan, to grow 3.9% this year, faster than a 3.4% growth estimated earlier. Further, it revised upward the growth forecast for the next year, expecting a growth of 6.4% compared to a 6% rise estimated earlier. The Manila-based bank expects Singapore to shrink 5% this year and grow 3.5% next year.

Gold Slips Slightly, Holds Above $1,010

Gold prices inched lower on Friday as some traders collected profits, but remained above the $1,010 mark. Some traders expressed caution ahead of the interest rate decision.

December gold closed at $1,010.30 per ounce, up $3.20 on the session. Prices reached as high as $1,019.50 and as low as $1,008.

The Federal Open Market Committee’s policy meeting will conclude with the interest rate decision on Wednesday. Rates are widely predicted to remain at 0.25%.

There was no major economic data on Friday’s calendar. On Monday, leading indicators data for August is expected at 10 a.m. ET. A rise of 0.7% is forecast, compared to a 0.6% increase in July.

The dollar was little-changed against the euro, failing to mount much of a comeback from a yearly-low. The buck did climb to a two-week high against the sterling.

Gold fell $6.60 on Thusday after earlier reaching as high as $1,025.80 in overnight trading, approaching the record $1,033.90 reached in March 2008. When adjusted for inflation, however, gold moved near $2,000 back in 1980.

UK Sept. House Prices Increase On Dwindling Stock: Rightmove

British house prices increased in September on rising confidence and dwindling stock of property, results of a closely watched survey showed Monday.

Average asking prices were up 0.6% in September from August as autumn sellers raised price expectations, the property website Rightmove reported. House prices had declined 2.2% in August after rising 0.6% in July.

Currently, the average property asking price is GBP 223,996. Year-on-year, house prices dropped at a slower pace of 1.5% in September compared to a 3.1% fall in August.

Rightmove recorded the lowest average stock levels per branch for 18 months, with 29% more properties coming off the market than coming to the market.

With 151,591 properties measured as coming off the market this month, it indicates why property scarcity in popular areas is underpinning price levels, Rightmove said. This trend is clearly evident in the south of the nation.

According to the property website, would-be sellers were deterred from trading up by dwindling property choice and high deposit requirements. With choice getting increasingly limited in popular areas, they need to have a buyer lined up to improve their chances of securing their next home.

The recession hit prices harder in the north and it was compounded by conservative attitude of lenders. “Lenders quite naturally prefer to lend to lower risk borrowers in better locations, with better job security, larger deposits and more resilient property values,” Miles Shipside, commercial director of Rightmove said.

He expects many of the aspiring sellers to be trapped in their homes until house prices increase enough for them to join the equity-rich club. But, even then they would be heavily dependent on the number of bottom-of-the-chain first-time-buyers.

There are lots of positive signals like rising confidence, lower stock and increasing number of people searching houses, but too few buyers can put down the 40% deposits that are needed in order to secure the best mortgage deals, said Shipside.

SECO Upgrades Swiss GDP Outlook; Sees Sluggish Recovery

Tuesday, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs raised Switzerland’s economic outlook, while forecasting the recovery to remain sluggish next year.

The expert group of the Federal Government expects the economy to shrink 1.7% during 2009, better than the 2.7% decline estimated in June, the agency said. With the global economy running out of steam again in the course of 2010, the government expects the economy to post a moderate growth of 0.4% next year compared to the previous forecast for a 0.4% fall.

While making the assessment, the expert group assumed that the current strong global economic upswing dynamics will loose a great deal of its momentum in 2010 with fiscal impulses fading out. But, cyclical upswing dynamics would continue for a longer period following the previous sharp drop in demand.

Recession in Switzerland was relatively mild compared to international scale due to a stable domestic demand which partly offset losses in the export industry and the finance sector. Strongest negative impulses on GDP came from a sharp decline in the value added in the financial sector.

With momentum picking up slowly, the prospects for the labor market remain bleak. Employment is likely to fall in the coming quarters and would not start to increase before late 2010. The jobless rate is set to rise to an annual average of 5.2% next year from this year’s 3.8%.

Regarding consumer prices, SECO expects the phase of negative consumer price development to halt within the coming few months as the price decreasing effects resulting from crude oil prices will disappear in the coming months. Consumer prices are expected to rise 0.9% in 2010.

On September 17, the Swiss National Bank kept its key interest rate unchanged at 0.25% for the second rate-setting session in a row. Also, the bank revised its economic outlook for 2009 citing improvements in the global economy and at home. It now expects the economy to shrink between 1.5% and 2% this year.

The revisions of SECO and the central bank were in contrast to the assessment of the Zurich-based KOF. The think-tank sees a contraction of 3.3% in 2009, worse than its March’s forecast of a 2.4% shrinkage. For 2010, the research institute expects a GDP decline of 0.6%, while it had predicted a 0.3% contraction in March.

Elsewhere, the Federal Customs Administration reported a decline in the Switzerland’s trade surplus for August. The surplus stood at CHF 1.79 billion, down from CHF 2.21 billion in July.

European Economics Preview

Wednesday, the Bank of England minutes and Eurozone industrial new orders are expected to dominate the newsflow from European economies.

At 2.45am ET, the French statistical office INSEE is scheduled to issue consumer spending for August. Consumer spending is forecast to rise 0.3% month-on-month in August following a 1.4% growth in July.

Thereafter, French business confidence survey results are due. Business sentiment is expected to rise to 81 in September from 78 in August.

The release of the Flash Purchasing Managers’ Index reports for major Eurozone economies is set to start at 3.00 am ET. The first one expected to hit the wires is the Flash French PMI for both manufacturing and service sectors. Thereafter, Flash German and Eurozone PMI data are also due.

At 4.30am ET, the Bank of England is slated to issue minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee held on September 9 and 10. The MPC had decided to maintain its interest rate at 0.5% and also voted to continue the GBP 175 billion asset purchase programme using central bank reserves. In the meantime, the Agents’ summary of business conditions report is also due.

At the same time, the British Bankers’ Association is set to release the details of mortgages approved in August. The number of mortgages approved in August is seen at 40,500 compared to 38,181 in July.

Half an hour later, Eurozone industrial new orders data is due from the Eurostat. After increasing 3.1% in June, economists expect new orders to grow 2%. At the same time, the Icelandic wage index is also due.

At 8.00am ET, the Norges bank is set to announce the interest rate decision. The Oslo-based central bank is expected to hold the interest rate at a record low level of 1.25%.

Verifone Stock Options Indicate Bullish Positioning At Payment Provider

September 11th, 2009 - Verifone Holdings, Inc. (PAY) - The designer of systems that enable secure electronic payments edged onto our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner this afternoon after a large bullish stance was taken in the January 2010 contract. Shares of the firm have increased nearly 1% today to stand at $14.13. The options .
The designer of systems that enable secure electronic payments edged onto our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner this afternoon after a large bullish stance was taken in the January 2010 contract. Shares of the firm have increased nearly 1% today to stand at $14.13. The options action observed indicates that one investor expects significant appreciation in shares by next year. But, the trader apparently does not see the stock rising much higher than the current 52-week high of 19.91, attained nearly one year ago on September 12, 2008. The bullish trader was seen partially financing the purchase of a long call spread by selling 12,000 out-of-the-money puts at the January 10 strike for 55 cents each. He then bought 12,000 calls at the January 12.5 strike for 3.10 per contract, spread against the sale of the same number of calls at the higher January 20 strike for 42 cents premium apiece. The net cost of the spread was reduced to 2.13. Thus, the trader stands to accumulate maximum potential profits of 5.37 should the stock surges to $20.00 by expiration in January. Shares would need to rally a whopping 42% from the current price for the trader to pocket the maximum available profits of approximately $6,444,000. We note that the 36,000 lot trade put on today exceeds the previous existing open interest on the stock of 29,251.

SPDR Gold Trust (GLD: 98.3326 +0.6326 +0.65%)- Option traders established ratio put spreads on the gold exchange-traded fund today amid a 1% rally in shares to $97.86. Gold is actually a couple of dollars lower today as the dollar regains its feet and investors critically assess the rationale for gold’s recent ascent. Today’s put spreads represent downside protection for investors hoping to lock in gains assumed to have been made during the recent rally in the price of gold. Using the November contract 2,500 puts were picked up at the November 97 strike for 4.20 apiece, and spread against the sale of 5,000 puts at the lower November 93 strike for 2.25 each. The investor pockets a net credit of 30 cents on the trade, which he will retain in full if shares of the GLD remain higher than $97.00 by expiration. Beneath a price of $97.00 for GLD, the investor faces rising profits should shares fall to $93.00 at which point maximum gains of 4.0 per contract would be made. Beneath this point, the investor is net short of a put and effectively watching gains disappear by the time shares reach $89.00.

Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC: 27.5818 -0.2782 -1.00%)- It appears that despite little change in the price of shares at Wells Fargo today ($27.65) some institutional money is betting on further downside. Two large plays were apparent earlier. In the January 2010 puts one investor bought a ratio put spread involving 150,000 contracts. Buying 50,000 puts at the 25 strike and selling 100,000 puts at the 20 strike cost a vastly reduced net premium of just 35 cents. The outright premium to get short stock at the 25 strike at 2.35 today would imply a breakeven on this trade of $22.65 but this investor has reduced that to a breakeven instead at $24.65. Maximum profits of 4.65 are achieved should the share price reach the rather bearish 20 strike by January, which is consistent with a decline of 28%. Profits would wilt should WFC reach $15.35. In the October contract one investor paid 60 cents to get long of 40,000 puts implying a near-term decline at Wells Fargo. Since the start of the month investors have lifted its share price steadily with a higher low apparent on the chart. Implied option volatility on the wane today provides little sense of increased panic.

Semiconductor HOLDRs Trust (SMH: 25.65 -0.50 -1.91%)- Bearish activity on the semiconductors fund launched the SMH ticker symbol onto our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner this morning. Shares are currently off slightly by less than 0.25% to stand at $26.10. Trading of options set to expire in October suggests that some investors do not expect the SMH to surpass the current 52-week high on the stock of $27.57, attained nearly one year ago on September 19, 2008. Such sentiment was indicated by a bearish risk reversal, which was established through the short sale of about 5,000 calls at the October 27 strike for 53 cents apiece. The calls were spread against the purchase of approximately 10,000 puts at the lower October 25 strike for 64 cents per contract. Selling the calls offset roughly half of the cost of picking up the protective put options. The transaction will result in profits if shares fall substantially below the $25.00-level by expiration. Perhaps investors employing the risk reversal strategy are long the underlying stock. If this is the case, the actions taken today have partially offset the cost of protecting a long stock position.

Comcast Corp. (CMCSK: 16.49 -0.08 -0.48%) - Options activity by one investor on CMCSK this morning points to medium-term pessimism on the provider of entertainment and communications services going forward. Shares of Comcast are currently trading 0.5% higher to $16.50. The trader appears to have established a bearish risk reversal in the January 2010 contract by shorting calls to finance the purchase of put options. He shed 5,000 calls at the January 16 strike for a premium of 1.57 each and simultaneously bought 5,000 puts at the same strike for 1.40 per contract. The investor receives a net credit on the transaction of 17 cents. Additional profits may accumulate if shares of CMCSK decline beneath $16.00 by expiration next year. The net credit received may act as a buffer against losses in the event that shares remain higher than $16.00. However, losses would begin to accrue for the trader if shares are higher than the breakeven point to the upside at $16.17 by expiration. We’re unsure whether this transaction involves the simultaneous purchase of stock meaning the option combination would act as insurance.

Bay Street Stocks Add To Multi-Month Best Behind Resource Sectors - Canadian Commentary

The S&P/TSX Composite Index has jumped 97.84 points or 0.87% to move at 11,253.13 points. The market gained for a fifth time in six sessions.

Energy stocks are up 2.5%, led by a 6% spike for Encana (ECA.TO). The company announced plans to split into two separate companies last night. The move is expected to close November 30.

Gold stocks have gained 1.7% as the precious metal hit a fresh 18-month high. Iamgold (IMG.TO) is up 4.1%, Eldorado (ELD.TO) has added 4% and Royal Gold (RGL.TO) has added 3.5%.

In other corporate news, Altius Minerals Corporation (ALS.TO) has climbed 1.6% after the company reported first quarter net loss of C$597,000 or C$0.02 per share, compared to net earnings of C$380,000 or C$0.01 per share in the year-ago quarter.

Jaguar Mining (JAG.TO) has slipped 0.6% after the company said that it has entered into an agreement with a group of initial purchasers to issue and sell US$150 million of 4.50% senior convertible notes due 2014.

Harry Winston Diamond (HW.TO) has slipped 4.6% after the company posted second quarter net loss of US$24.5 million or US$0.32 per share, compared to net earnings of US$49.9 million or US$0.81 per share in the prior year quarter.

Compton Petroleum Corp. (CMT.TO) has plunged 20.4% after the company announced it will issue an aggregate of 120 million units on a bought deal basis at a price of C$1.25 per unit for aggregate gross proceeds of C$150 million.

In economic news, Canadian new home prices rose 0.3% in July following a 0.2% decline in June. This was the first increase since September 2008. Economists expected new home prices to slip 0.1% in July.

European Economics Preview: ECB Expected To Hold Key Rate

Thursday, the European Central Bank rate decision is in spotlight. The announcement is due at 7.45 am ET. The Governing Council of the ECB is expected to hold its key interest rate, which is the interest rate on the main refinancing operations, at 1%.

At 2.45am ET, the French ILO jobless rate for the second quarter is due. In the first quarter, the unemployment rate was 9.1%.

Thereafter, the Riksbank interest rate decision is due at 3.30am ET. In the meantime, the Statistics Netherlands is scheduled to issue Dutch consumer prices details. Annual inflation is seen at 0.4% in August, up from 0.2% in July.

The services PMI reports for major European economies are scheduled for the day. The Italian services PMI, to be released at 3.45am ET, is expected to rise to 46 in August. The French services PMI is seen at 48.9 and German PMI at 54.1, both reading are expected to match their flash estimates. Further, at 4.00am ET, the Eurozone PMI is also predicted to come in line with flash reading of 49.5.

Half an hour later, UK’s HM Treasury is set to issue official reserves for August. Meanwhile, British services PMI is also due. The index is expected to rise to 54 in August from 53.2 in July.

At 5.00am ET, the Eurostat is slated to issue Eurozone retail sales data for July. After declining 0.2% in June, retail sales are forecast to rise 0.1% in July.

Japan Capital Spending Down For Ninth Straight Quarter

Japanese capital spending continued to decline in the second quarter despite the Japanese economy having emerged from a recession, the Ministry of Finance announced Friday. The Ministry also revealed that capital investments were at their lowest level since the June quarter of 2002. Also, total sales dropped year-on-year in the second quarter, while ordinary profits fell at a slower pace during the same period.

Overall capital spending in Japanese industries decreased 21.7% in the second quarter compared to the 25.3% drop in the previous quarter. Economists were looking for a more severe 23% fall. Excluding spending in the software industry, capital spending decreased 22.2% annually. On a quarterly basis, spending was down 4.5% in the second quarter. Capital investments were down across almost all of the major industrial sectors.

Analyzing by separate industry groups, spending in the manufacturing sector plunged 32% year-on-year in the second quarter, faster than the 21.2% fall witnessed in the last quarter, and accounted for about 37% of the total spending. Of this, the information & communication electronics equipment industry recorded the biggest annual fall, down 51.9%. It was followed by electrical machinery, equipment & supplies, which slipped 42.8%, and transportation equipment, down 41.4%.

Spending by the non-manufacturing sector slid 14.2% on year in the second quarter. The fall was mainly driven by the goods rental & leasing industry, which slid 61.8% in the second quarter. Other notable decreases include the services industry, in which spending dropped 55.1%, and production, transmission & distribution of electricity, down 9.8%. The fall across the board was slightly offset by the real estate industry, where investments rose 25.3%, and wholesale & retail trade, up 4.2%.

Spending by total number of corporations with capital over 1 billion yen decreased 17.3% year-on-year in the second quarter, and amounted to 5.5 trillion in comparison to 8.4 trillion spent by the same category of corporations in the previous quarter.

Total sales were down 17% year-on-year in the second quarter compared to the 20.4% fall in the previous quarter. Sales in the manufacturing sector, accounting for about 28% of the total sales, dropped 26.8%, while the non-manufacturing sector sales decreased 12.4%. Sales of petroleum & coal products decreased 44.7%, and transportation equipment sales were down 38.3%. Iron & steel and fabricated metal products recorded sales declines of 37.4% each.

Ordinary profits plummeted 53% annually in the second quarter compared to the 69% fall in the first quarter. Profits plunged across most of the industry groups, with the construction industry recording the largest fall at a rate of 215.5%. Other industries that recorded declining profits were information & communication electronics equipment, iron & steel, and electrical machinery, equipment & supplies, down 189.5%, 147.3%, and 117%, respectively.

The ratio of ordinary profits to sales was up 2.4% in the second quarter compared to the 1.4% rise in the first quarter.

Premature Exit May Stall Global Recovery

Calls for continuing stimulus measures until the global economy recovers with sustainable growth, strengthened Friday, when the International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet voiced their support.

Speaking at the sixth annual Bundesbank Lecture in Berlin, Strauss-Kahn said he sees a real danger that policymakers may jeopardize the recovery by exiting from crisis measures too soon. But, he said it is the right time for policy makers to formulate their exit strategies.

The IMF official said, “Given the fragility of the recovery, there are risks that it could stall.”

A day earlier, Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan raised similar concerns saying that a premature withdrawal of stimulus measures would stall global recovery. He said Australia would gradually withdraw their stimulus measures in the last quarter of this year and would continue it through to 2011.

Meanwhile, Strauss-Kahn stated that early exit from accommodative monetary and fiscal policies is a principal concern. In addition, problems in the financial sector could persist or even intensify further, particularly if efforts to restore banks to health are not completed.

“Now is not the time to exit. But I would like to make it clear that the ECB has an exit strategy, and we stand ready to put it into action when the appropriate time comes,” Trichet said at the ECB Watchers conference in Frankfurt. He stressed that it would be premature to declare that the crisis over.

Trichet noted that the ECB’s non-standard measures, introduced to address the financial crisis, were designed with exit considerations in mind.

Selective Remains the Key is usd

USD has satisfied the bulls and bears in this week the question is in which pair as the bull and in which is the bear.
ForexCult.com mentioned that "although we expect a continual rally in the USD, traders need to be careful of what they buy." having that said because we had indicated that the USD could rally against the Eur and GBP but was turning resistance very close against the JP Yen.
Those moves that we were looking have already happened and are now becoming a bit over extended. However and for the most, the downtrend in the USD against the JP Yen and its up trends against the Euro currency and GBP should remain intact but being more precise will continue to be the key to trading currencies in the near future.
The marquee event of the week will be the United States retail sales report and even though it seems that consumer spending will falter, it may be a bit better and not such a bad report as market and speculator might have suggested.
The drop in consumer confidence and non-farm payrolls point to weakness, but the coming rise in food and the energy prices along with the stronger earnings from local companies such as Wal-Mart and Costco probably suggest otherwise.
The main reason why the market got a huge response to this report is because of its affect on a central bank's monetary policy decision. However with the Fed, a pause in Jun has already been discounted by the market.
The United States economy has been weakened massively in the past few months and will probably or shall we say quite surely to weaken in the coming months as well considering the next coming report, but after having cut interest rates by 325bp since August, the Fed has decided that it is time to shift their focus to inflation.
Oil (on $126 pick) and corn prices hit a new record high, making price pressures a growing concern and making harder for the proletarians to live peacefully.
Unfortunately for the Fed, they have no room to raise interest rates, leaving the USD as one of their only tools to curb inflationary pressures. By hinting that they will be taking a break from cutting interest rates, they have already gained some stability and control in the USD and in addition to the retail sales report, we shall also expect consumer prices, the Philly Fed survey, industrial production, and housing starts in next week.

The USD Bullish behavior continue with Fed Hike Forecasts Fading

Credit Market - What's going on basically?

After a boost of top economic event risk, the USD has come through this past week with a more promising outlook for growth as well as diminished potential for a Fed rate hike this year. After the policy board announced its intentions to hold the benchmark lending rate at 2.00 percent and offered rhetoric that was more or less in line with the group’s middle-of-the-road commentary from previous months’ statements, the probability that the central bank would raise rates by the end of the year dropped from 71.6 percent to 59.9 percent. However, with evidence that the financial and credit markets are stabilizing, economic activity is turning up from the worst and upstream inflation is cooling, the Fed may be emboldened to tighten well before the consensus and continue to raise rates to a level well beyond the 75bp over the next 12 months overnight interest rate swaps are currently pricing in.
Dollar will probably be on another rally soon.

CAD High Reward to Risk Trade

there is a high reward / risk short USDCAD opportunity. The EURUSD remains in a range, but the recent rally is corrective. This corrective advance could very well be part of a larger corrective advance however.
Not much has changed regarding the EURUSD this morning. We wrote yesterday that "the drop from 1.5701 is in 5 waves and is most likely wave 3 within a 5 wave drop from 1.6039. A corrective 4th wave advance is expected to unfold over the next several days. 4th wave usually reach at least the 4th wave of one less degree (1.5083 in this case). The 38.2% of 3 is also a common terminal point for 4th waves (1.5153 in this case)." Although a larger correction to the mentioned levels is preferred, the advance from 1.4815 is clearly in 3 waves and therefore corrective; leaving the EURUSD vulnerable to additional weakness as long as price is below 1.4981.
Things are playing out as expected with the USDJPY. "Bigger picture, we maintain that wave Y (the third wave in a 3 wave advance from 95.72) is underway from 103.76 and will end in the 113.25-116.65 zone (Fibo levels from the 124.13-95.72 drop) and give way to a long term reversal. The rally from 103.76 is probably the first zigzag in a double zigzag (as wave Y), so expectations are for a drop to reach the 38.2% of 103.76-110.40 (107.86)." The USDJPY fell to 108.36 this morning but we favor additional weakness with the first objective being 107.86 and the second 107.10.
The GBPUSD has plunged and is nearing the longer term support levels that we have mentioned in recent months near 1.85. The short term trend remains bearish as long as price is below 1.9034. It is worth mentioning that 13 day rate of change is at its lowest level since August 1997. When we do get an upward correction, it will probably be sharp.
The USDCHF has nearly reached the initial objective (already) of 1.0986 (the 100% extension of .9647-1.0624/1.0010. A reaction lower is expected to occur off of this line. There is potential support near 1.0740.
The AUDUSD decline is nothing has continued and counting short term waves is an exercise in futility right now. The pair may test the January (and 2008) low of .8512 before we see a rebound. Longer term expectations are for the drop to reach .6770 but there will be corrections along the way. It is not safe to enter short at this level since the risk of a large and sharp correction are simply too high.
The NZDUSD spiked lower this morning, touching the 161.8% extension of .8215-.7536/.7921. Short term channel support should lead to a larger advance from near current price. Resistance begins at .7082.

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