Credit Market - What's going on basically?
After a boost of top economic event risk, the USD has come through this past week with a more promising outlook for growth as well as diminished potential for a Fed rate hike this year. After the policy board announced its intentions to hold the benchmark lending rate at 2.00 percent and offered rhetoric that was more or less in line with the group’s middle-of-the-road commentary from previous months’ statements, the probability that the central bank would raise rates by the end of the year dropped from 71.6 percent to 59.9 percent. However, with evidence that the financial and credit markets are stabilizing, economic activity is turning up from the worst and upstream inflation is cooling, the Fed may be emboldened to tighten well before the consensus and continue to raise rates to a level well beyond the 75bp over the next 12 months overnight interest rate swaps are currently pricing in.
Dollar will probably be on another rally soon.
Sunday, September 6, 2009
CAD High Reward to Risk Trade
there is a high reward / risk short USDCAD opportunity. The EURUSD remains in a range, but the recent rally is corrective. This corrective advance could very well be part of a larger corrective advance however.
Not much has changed regarding the EURUSD this morning. We wrote yesterday that "the drop from 1.5701 is in 5 waves and is most likely wave 3 within a 5 wave drop from 1.6039. A corrective 4th wave advance is expected to unfold over the next several days. 4th wave usually reach at least the 4th wave of one less degree (1.5083 in this case). The 38.2% of 3 is also a common terminal point for 4th waves (1.5153 in this case)." Although a larger correction to the mentioned levels is preferred, the advance from 1.4815 is clearly in 3 waves and therefore corrective; leaving the EURUSD vulnerable to additional weakness as long as price is below 1.4981.
Things are playing out as expected with the USDJPY. "Bigger picture, we maintain that wave Y (the third wave in a 3 wave advance from 95.72) is underway from 103.76 and will end in the 113.25-116.65 zone (Fibo levels from the 124.13-95.72 drop) and give way to a long term reversal. The rally from 103.76 is probably the first zigzag in a double zigzag (as wave Y), so expectations are for a drop to reach the 38.2% of 103.76-110.40 (107.86)." The USDJPY fell to 108.36 this morning but we favor additional weakness with the first objective being 107.86 and the second 107.10.
The GBPUSD has plunged and is nearing the longer term support levels that we have mentioned in recent months near 1.85. The short term trend remains bearish as long as price is below 1.9034. It is worth mentioning that 13 day rate of change is at its lowest level since August 1997. When we do get an upward correction, it will probably be sharp.
The USDCHF has nearly reached the initial objective (already) of 1.0986 (the 100% extension of .9647-1.0624/1.0010. A reaction lower is expected to occur off of this line. There is potential support near 1.0740.
The AUDUSD decline is nothing has continued and counting short term waves is an exercise in futility right now. The pair may test the January (and 2008) low of .8512 before we see a rebound. Longer term expectations are for the drop to reach .6770 but there will be corrections along the way. It is not safe to enter short at this level since the risk of a large and sharp correction are simply too high.
The NZDUSD spiked lower this morning, touching the 161.8% extension of .8215-.7536/.7921. Short term channel support should lead to a larger advance from near current price. Resistance begins at .7082.
Not much has changed regarding the EURUSD this morning. We wrote yesterday that "the drop from 1.5701 is in 5 waves and is most likely wave 3 within a 5 wave drop from 1.6039. A corrective 4th wave advance is expected to unfold over the next several days. 4th wave usually reach at least the 4th wave of one less degree (1.5083 in this case). The 38.2% of 3 is also a common terminal point for 4th waves (1.5153 in this case)." Although a larger correction to the mentioned levels is preferred, the advance from 1.4815 is clearly in 3 waves and therefore corrective; leaving the EURUSD vulnerable to additional weakness as long as price is below 1.4981.
Things are playing out as expected with the USDJPY. "Bigger picture, we maintain that wave Y (the third wave in a 3 wave advance from 95.72) is underway from 103.76 and will end in the 113.25-116.65 zone (Fibo levels from the 124.13-95.72 drop) and give way to a long term reversal. The rally from 103.76 is probably the first zigzag in a double zigzag (as wave Y), so expectations are for a drop to reach the 38.2% of 103.76-110.40 (107.86)." The USDJPY fell to 108.36 this morning but we favor additional weakness with the first objective being 107.86 and the second 107.10.
The GBPUSD has plunged and is nearing the longer term support levels that we have mentioned in recent months near 1.85. The short term trend remains bearish as long as price is below 1.9034. It is worth mentioning that 13 day rate of change is at its lowest level since August 1997. When we do get an upward correction, it will probably be sharp.
The USDCHF has nearly reached the initial objective (already) of 1.0986 (the 100% extension of .9647-1.0624/1.0010. A reaction lower is expected to occur off of this line. There is potential support near 1.0740.
The AUDUSD decline is nothing has continued and counting short term waves is an exercise in futility right now. The pair may test the January (and 2008) low of .8512 before we see a rebound. Longer term expectations are for the drop to reach .6770 but there will be corrections along the way. It is not safe to enter short at this level since the risk of a large and sharp correction are simply too high.
The NZDUSD spiked lower this morning, touching the 161.8% extension of .8215-.7536/.7921. Short term channel support should lead to a larger advance from near current price. Resistance begins at .7082.
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Their forex training is comprehensive and competent because it gives every level of investor a place to start. Are you brand new to forex investments? There’s a novice section. Are you experience in forex investments? There’s an advance section. Each section covers a wealth of material that truly takes the learner on a journey from basic introductions, step-by-step through the concepts.
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This level of training enables investors of all backgrounds and investing experiences to enter markets confidently and to exit investments profitably. But to back up their training, a support forum is also available where investors can interact and where expert traders can offer advice, guidance, and mentorship to participants.
The problem is we’ve seen it before. Again and again. It’s not a training system; it’s a focus on one part of technical analysis or another (often by people who don’t know the definition of technical analysis). They throw around words like “Fibonacci” or “Bollinger Bands” as if they themselves invented the term.
The tragedy is that “newbie” investors can get sucked in to the promises of huge earnings. They shell out for the ebook. And they’re left confused or overly-confident. Either way, they lose.
How does one succeed in the market? The truth of the matter is, one can succeed with solid, foundational forex training, and then back up that training with support and advice from real trading professionals, and then back up that training and that support with experience.
That’s where VIRT® Professional Tutor by Forex Worldwide Training and Support comes in. In a world of “me-too” content, VIRT® Professional Tutor is real forex training. This organization ignores the hype and instead focuses on doing one thing really, really well. They offer comprehensive, competent training delivered in a compelling way.
Their forex training is comprehensive and competent because it gives every level of investor a place to start. Are you brand new to forex investments? There’s a novice section. Are you experience in forex investments? There’s an advance section. Each section covers a wealth of material that truly takes the learner on a journey from basic introductions, step-by-step through the concepts.
Forex training for novices at VIRT® Professional Tutor is made up of 6 modules covering such diverse but fundamental topics as Market Terminology, Business Environment, Predictability, Capital Management, Probability Study, and Application of Entry Point System. Each module contains 5 to 9 lessons that look at that topic in-depth. Each lesson ends in a quiz to help the student uncover the effectiveness of their learning.
Forex training for advanced investors at VIRT® Professional Tutor is made up of 4 modules covering expert topics like Advanced Fibonacci, the Rule of 8, Fundamentals, and System Development. Again, each module contains several lessons and finishes with a quiz.
This material is compelling in its delivery. There’s text, of course, and interspersed throughout the text are videos and interactive content – including graphics and graphical stories – to explain the concepts and illustrate with real world examples. The text talks about a concept and then a graph is shown to demonstrate an example in real life and to drive home the point.
This level of training enables investors of all backgrounds and investing experiences to enter markets confidently and to exit investments profitably. But to back up their training, a support forum is also available where investors can interact and where expert traders can offer advice, guidance, and mentorship to participants.
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